Cycles: Avoid Maximum Leverage in Good Times and Endure the Downturn

Originally published 2021-04-01Robin’s commentary

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Collected in Robin Shen’s Field Notes · Content type and attribution are shown above

English translation of the Chinese post originally published 2021-04-01. Translated 2026-10-30 with AI assistance. Historical figures and claims have not been updated or independently verified. 中文原文

Reading guide

Robin discusses cycles: experience matters. The more you have seen, the calmer you become and the better you can seize opportunities across cycles. Because cycles exist, avoid continually maximizing leverage in good times—an antifragility consideration. In adversity or a prolonged downturn, if you endure it, you may well win.

Key points

Experience brings a calmer perspective on cycles.
Avoid maximizing leverage throughout good times; leave room for antifragility.
If you can survive the downturn, you may well win.

One clear path continues into the distance among several branching routes, suggesting choice and focus. — Entrepreneurship & strategyThematic illustration · AI generated

Full text — English translation

#OnCycles Experience matters. The more you have seen, the calmer you become, and you can seize opportunities by navigating cycles. Because cycles exist, avoid continually maximizing leverage when times are good—antifragility. When adversity or a prolonged downturn arrives, if you can grit your teeth and endure it, you may well win.

These articles are personal notes, book excerpts, and collected reprints. Figures and events reflect the time of the original publication, are not current information, and do not constitute investment advice.

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