Robin considers Shopify the closest comparison to 91APP. At the time, Shopify had a market capitalization of US$140 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 738, and a price-to-sales ratio of 56, while 91APP offered more functionality and had greater ambitions in online-merge-offline (OMO) commerce. His broader concern is what this means for Taiwan’s capital markets. Regardless of whether someone uses 91APP’s products or services, he hopes its entry into Taiwan’s capital markets will encourage more Taiwanese SaaS companies to move forward and break free of a hardware-centered mindset. Beyond a technology landscape dominated by TSMC, Taiwan needs new opportunities for transformation, and Robin sees 91APP as a pioneer opening that door. The valuation figures reflect December 2020.
Key points
Shopify had a market capitalization of US$140 billion and a price-to-sales ratio of 56 at the time in 2020.
91APP offered more functionality and had greater ambitions in OMO commerce.
Encourage Taiwanese SaaS companies to move beyond a hardware-centered mindset.
91APP was opening the door to Taiwan’s capital markets for SaaS companies.
Reprinted news: CATL reported 2022 revenue of RMB328.5 billion, up 152% year over year, and net profit of RMB30.7 billion, up 92%. Its global market share of EV battery usage was 37%, ranking first for the sixth consecutive year; its share of energy-storage battery shipments was 43.4%, ranking first for the second consecutive year. R&D spending was RMB15.5 billion, up 101%. Robin comments that even before entering venture capital more than a decade earlier, he had reservations about Taiwan’s prospects in the battery industry if competition came down to economies of scale, volume, cost, or even basic-science capabilities. Looking back, he feels those concerns seem to have been borne out. He also jokes that “our Simplo makes a ton of money too.” The financial figures refer to 2022; the remark about Simplo is a personal joke and does not indicate any shareholding or fund relationship.
Key points
CATL’s 2022 revenue was RMB328.5 billion, up 152% year over year, with net profit of RMB30.7 billion.
Its 37% EV battery share put it first globally for six consecutive years; its 43.4% energy-storage share made it first for two consecutive years.
R&D spending was RMB15.5 billion, up 101%; lithium-ion battery sales were 289 GWh.
Robin had reservations more than a decade earlier about Taiwan competing on battery scale and cost, and feels those concerns now seem borne out.
Reprinted shareholder letter (Chinese translation by Vinchent)
Reading guide
This letter was written amid the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000, when Amazon’s share price fell 80%. It reports 20 million customers, an increase of 1.4 million; sales rising from $1.64 billion to $2.76 billion; gross margin growing 125%; and $1.1 billion in year-end cash. By every measure, it says, Amazon was in a stronger position than ever. Why, then, did the share price plunge? Bezos quotes Benjamin Graham: in the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine. The 1999 surge reflected plentiful “votes,” not “weight”; Amazon wanted to be weighed. He also acknowledges the failures of the living.com and pets.com investments and underestimating how hard it would be for single-category online retailers to scale. Looking ahead, he draws confidence from advances in bandwidth, storage, and processors, believing roughly 15% of retail would move online permanently. As usual, he appends the first letter from 1997.
Key points
The share price fell 80%, but every operating measure improved.
Graham: in the short run, a voting machine; in the long run, a weighing machine.
An acknowledgment and review of the failed pets.com and living.com investments.
Long-term confidence supported by technological advances, including a 60-fold increase in bandwidth over five years.
News excerpt (matching Chinese source: UDN Global's Zhuanjiao Shuo, July 4, 2020)
Reading guide
According to reports at the time in 2020, €1.9 billion in cash on Wirecard's books could not be confirmed, and two Philippine banks denied holding the money. On June 22, 2020, the company said the cash probably did not exist. It filed for insolvency proceedings on June 25, becoming the first DAX constituent to do so. Passages in the original post match UDN Global's Zhuanjiao Shuo report of July 4, 2020. This page records contemporary news, not the latest developments in the case.
Key points
In June 2020, a €1.9 billion cash balance could not be confirmed.
On June 22, 2020, the company said the money probably did not exist.
The June 25, 2020 insolvency filing was the first by a DAX constituent.
The Chinese excerpt contains passages matching UDN Global's Zhuanjiao Shuo report of July 4, 2020.
Robin surveys routes to a US listing: besides a traditional IPO, there is direct listing. Special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) were popular again in 2020, with examples including electric-truck company Nikola and Virgin Galactic, and he saw potential opportunities worth studying. He also offers a practical reminder: if annual earnings are below $5 million, set aside thoughts of a US listing for now. Underwriting, accounting, and other fees together start at $5 million.
Key points
US listing routes include traditional IPOs, direct listings, and SPACs.
Prominent SPAC examples include Nikola and Virgin Galactic.
The cost reality: underwriting, accounting, and other fees start at $5 million.
Bezos's 2017 shareholder letter opens the discussion: customers are never satisfied, and today's “wow” soon becomes tomorrow's routine. Focus on customers rather than competitors. Robin connects this with personal experience. After Xiaoshu Pharmacy's IPO, people asked about its operations and listing process, hoping to follow. Yet it became a public issuer in late ROC year 103 (2014) and listed on the OTC market in March ROC year 105 (2016), giving it a six-year head start after listing; pre-IPO preparation took another two to three years. Before joining the crowd because someone else is doing well, consider the time required and the gap to close. His conclusion: think carefully before trying to overtake others on the same track. Rather than trying to be better, create different value.
Key points
Bezos: focus on customers rather than competitors.
Xiaoshu Pharmacy became a public issuer in ROC 103 (2014) and listed on the OTC market in ROC 105 (2016), gaining a six-year head start.
Before following the crowd, calculate the time required and the gap.
The conclusion: rather than being better, be different.
Robin argues that material information announcements on the Market Observation Post System should be factual and restrained. If a company wants to celebrate how wonderful it is, he suggests buying media space: Taiwanese readers and investors cannot distinguish a journalist's reporting from a company's promotional copy, and media outlets need advertising budgets to survive. Announcements on the exchange-supervised disclosure platform, however, must take the regulator's approach and standards into account. In the example, passive-component manufacturer YAGEO issued a September 26 announcement titled “YAGEO Group AI Summit Concludes Successfully, with Every Seat Filled.” On October 7, the Taiwan Stock Exchange imposed an NT$200,000 contractual penalty because material information announcements must not contain advertising-like statements. It reiterated that such disclosures must not provide unconfirmed information, expound management philosophy, or serve as an advertising platform.
Key points
Material information disclosures should be factual and restrained; promotional material belongs in paid media.
The YAGEO example: an AI forum announcement resulted in an NT$200,000 contractual penalty in October 2024.
TWSE rules prohibit using material information disclosures to expound management philosophy, provide unconfirmed information, or advertise.
Drawing on The Great Game, this note describes Wall Street as both a foundation for and a driver of America's transformation and prosperity. It financed the Civil War, supported westward development, helped build a nationwide railroad network, and fueled the first major expansion of heavy industry. During the two world wars it became a global financial center; afterward, it helped incubate at least two new economic transformations, in automobiles and the internet. Adam Smith's “invisible hand” is the thread: securities dealers pursued their own interests while also providing a reliable mechanism to supply industrialization with working capital. Robin's opening argument is that Taiwan must not casually weaken or marginalize its capital markets. The most open capital markets support the strongest environment for innovation and entrepreneurship.
Key points
Wall Street supported US war financing, westward development, and railroads, enabling a major expansion of heavy industry.
The two world wars made Wall Street a global financial center.
After the wars, it helped incubate new economic transformations in automobiles and the internet.
Robin's argument: Taiwan must not casually weaken or marginalize its capital markets.
As Appier's Japanese listing drew praise, Robin urged readers not to overlook the significance of another case: 91APP chose to list in Taiwan. He called for appreciation of this opportunity to set an example. A homegrown SaaS company's listing in Taiwan can influence more than its own share price; it can support digital transformation, the startup environment, and investors' understanding of the software industry. Capital markets need success stories to build confidence, and confidence takes time and accumulated examples. This is a short commentary from April 2021. The IPO valuation and events described at the time have not been externally verified and do not constitute investment advice.
Key points
Alongside Appier's Japanese listing, 91APP's decision to list in Taiwan deserves attention.
A Taiwan listing can support digital transformation, the startup environment, and investor education.
Capital markets need success stories to build confidence.
Confidence takes time and accumulated examples; this is an April 2021 commentary.
Commenting on 91APP's IPO, Robin notes its post-listing market capitalization of about US$1 billion. Although that differs from the definition of an unlisted unicorn, he emphasizes another significance: by choosing to list in Taiwan, 91APP set an example for the transformation of Taiwanese SaaS businesses and for the capital markets. Software companies have long lacked success stories in Taiwan's capital markets. Every company willing to stay and establish itself opens a path for those that follow. He uses the example to encourage startups to grow through difficult challenges. The market capitalization and assessment reflect June 2021; its value as an example is not a guarantee of current valuation or returns.
Key points
91APP's Taiwan listing sets a capital-market example for Taiwan's SaaS transformation.
Software companies have long lacked success stories in Taiwan's capital markets.
Every company that stays and establishes itself opens a path for those that follow.
The commentary encourages startups to grow through difficult challenges, as viewed in 2021.
Entrepreneurship brings difficult problems with no clear path; considering only your own preferences will never untangle them. One useful approach is to build an “inner board of directors”: imagine people with different perspectives sitting in your mind, and examine the problem from their viewpoints. A Shi, who leads Dedao's Listen to a Book Every Day team, imagines six decision-makers: a current paying user, a user ten years from now, an ordinary person without specialist knowledge who has a tribune's veto, a producer, a publisher, and an author. Another approach is to ask versions of yourself in different circumstances: if you had nothing, if you were leaving tomorrow, or if your future self ten years from now were beside you, what would you choose? Robin adds that this resembles Amazon's empty chair representing the customer in meetings.
Key points
Difficult problems contain endless complexity; considering only your own preferences will not resolve them.
An inner board means imagining people with different perspectives examining a decision from their viewpoints.
A Shi's six-person panel includes current and future users, an ordinary person, a producer, a publisher, and an author.
You can also ask yourself in different circumstances: with nothing, with little time left, or ten years into the future.
Robin adds that Amazon's empty chair gives the customer a permanent place in the meeting room.
The reprinted article explains a listing as discounting a company's expected future profits into its present market capitalization. Once shares have a public price, equity itself becomes acquisition “currency.” Focus Media listed in the US first in 2005, then acquired Target Media six months later with cash and newly issued shares: listing first and acquiring a rival with equity created an overwhelming advantage. Tudou missed its window after its founder's shares were frozen. When it listed in 2011, its market value was less than a quarter of Youku's, and it was eventually acquired, even though the revenue gap between them was under 50%. Timing was critical. Robin closes with his frequent argument that people in the internet world remember only the leader, so companies must use capital effectively to secure first place. This is his strongly held personal view.
Key points
A listing discounts future profits into market value, making equity usable as acquisition currency.
Focus Media versus Target Media: listing first and then acquiring a rival created an overwhelming advantage.
Youku versus Tudou: a modest revenue gap but an enormous valuation gap after a missed listing window.
Robin argues for using capital to secure first place; otherwise, the favorable outcome may be a low-priced acquisition, while many others are simply eliminated.
On Gogoro's planned US listing through a SPAC, Robin compares it to Chien-Ming Wang and Chin-Feng Chen challenging Major League Baseball: top talent wants to compete on the world stage, and Taiwan should wish them well. He also raises three sets of questions. Are Taiwan's capital markets ready for companies with large accumulated losses, low equity, or even negative equity? Companies understandably choose the listing venue that suits them best; raising more money abroad to develop in Taiwan can be positive. And maintaining visibility in US markets requires a sufficiently large investment theme, a top-three position in a regional market, and sustained rapid growth. His concerns about Gogoro include the potential of electric scooters, revenue concentrated in Taiwan, limited international visibility, and slowing growth. The financial figures are hypothetical scenarios based on market rumors in 2021, not actual financial statements.
Key points
Taiwan can begin by learning to accept high price-to-earnings multiples, price-to-sales valuations, and low equity; regulators, markets, and investors must learn together.
Companies choose suitable listing venues. If the US can provide NT$15 billion versus NT$1.5 billion in Taiwan, raising money there to develop in Taiwan deserves support.
Visibility in US capital markets requires a large investment theme, a top-three regional position, sustained rapid growth, attractive gross margins, and substantial revenue.
Robin identifies four concerns about Gogoro: the appeal of the theme, regional reach, international visibility, and possible slowing growth, explicitly calling these personal speculation.
Robin considers why people start businesses: earning a living and supporting a family, realizing a dream, pursuing an interest or passion, or changing the world. Goals differ. Some founders aim to exit through an acquisition; others want to run a lasting enterprise. Neither is right or wrong, but founders need a clear understanding of their venture and agreement with their partners. He emphasizes that capital markets are not a cash-out tool. They provide the provisions and ammunition to pursue an ambition and build a company that changes the world; a business run solely to cash out cannot achieve that. Nor does every venture need financing, unicorn status, or a place in capital markets. Some can stay small and be excellent, carefully crafted businesses. Do not let the outside environment dictate your choices. Not every venture must serve VCs or meet their expectations.
Key points
Entrepreneurs have different goals. Exiting along the way or building a lasting business is neither right nor wrong, but partners need agreement.
Capital markets supply provisions and ammunition; they are not a cash-out tool.
Not every venture needs financing or must become a unicorn.
Understand yourself, meet customer needs, and achieve your own aspirations before trying to satisfy VC expectations.
Robin believes Luckin Coffee's business journey deserves books by management thinkers. First, it took only 18 months from founding to a US listing. Second, exposure of financial fraud gave it the record for the fastest delisting of a Chinese company. Third, it began closing stores and cutting staff while facing enormous litigation from the US SEC and investors; everyone thought it was nearly finished. Fourth, after changes in senior management, it found turnaround strategies, including its hit coconut latte, and seemed to regain its footing. From capital-market darling to fraud case to comeback, the story spans almost every corporate-governance lesson. The “comeback” is an interim observation from September 2022, not a final verdict.
Key points
It took only 18 months from founding to a US listing.
Financial fraud led to what the post describes as a record-fast delisting for a Chinese company.
Management changed after the company faced enormous litigation from the SEC and investors.
Strategies including a hit coconut latte helped it regain its footing, as observed in 2022.
Robin observes that Taiwan had about 970 TWSE-listed companies, more than 800 TPEx-listed companies, and 300 Emerging Stock Board companies. Excluding other public issuers, these markets together had over 2,000 companies, with another 40–50 applying for TWSE or TPEx listings each year. His point is that Taiwan's overall capital market is not particularly large, and most trading is concentrated in large index heavyweights. New companies without distinctive qualities may be ignored just months after listing. The conclusion is the same as for startups: develop clear, differentiated advantages and ideally ride a visibly rising trajectory, rather than peaking in the listing year and deteriorating afterward. The company counts reflect October 2022.
Key points
Taiwan's TWSE, TPEx, and Emerging Stock Board together had over 2,000 companies, with 40–50 new listing applicants each year.
Trading is concentrated in large index heavyweights; undifferentiated newcomers may attract little interest months after listing.
Develop distinctive qualities that set the company apart.
Ideally, be on a clearly rising trajectory rather than peaking in the listing year.
Using Perfect's prospectus, Robin explains why a company using an overseas fundraising structure can have negative shareholders' equity. After the original shareholders, each financing round involves preferred shares, which are classified as liabilities under IFRS because of their special terms. Before listing, Perfect had US$93.83 million in assets and US$252 million in liabilities, including US$231 million of liability-classified preferred shares. At the closing share price at the time, it was at unicorn scale. First-half 2022 revenue was US$23.38 million, with an 86% gross margin. Estimating full-year revenue at about US$50 million against a US$1.3 billion market capitalization gives a price-to-sales ratio of about 26. Listing expenses alone reached US$48.66 million, about NT$1.5 billion. These figures reflect the 2022 prospectus; the sales multiple is Robin's estimate.
Key points
Special terms cause preferred shares to be classified as liabilities under IFRS, producing negative pre-listing shareholders' equity.
Of Perfect's US$252 million in liabilities, US$231 million consisted of preferred shares classified as liabilities.
First-half 2022 revenue was US$23.38 million, with an 86% gross margin; a US$1.3 billion market value implies about 26 times estimated annual sales, by Robin's calculation.
Listing expenses were US$48.66 million, approximately NT$1.5 billion.
Robin compares the markets: the Shanghai Stock Exchange STAR Market listed its first 25 companies in July 2019 and reached 500 in just over three years, raising RMB759.4 billion through IPOs with a total market capitalization approaching RMB6 trillion. Taiwan's Taipei Exchange had 808 listed companies worth NT$4.428 trillion, making STAR about 5.8 times larger by market value. STAR attracts hard-tech companies and supports investment in early-stage, small, technology-focused businesses. Nearly 90% of its companies had private-equity or venture-capital backing before listing. Market capitalization plus revenue can qualify a company without profitability; investors need two years of experience and at least RMB500,000 in their securities accounts. Robin hopes that after three to five years of development, Taiwan's Innovation Board can reach one-tenth of STAR's scale and significantly advance innovation investment in Taiwan. Figures reflect year-end 2022.
Key points
In just over three years, STAR reached 500 companies, RMB759.4 billion in IPO proceeds, and nearly RMB6 trillion in market value.
Nearly 90% of STAR companies had private-equity or venture-capital backing before listing.
Listing criteria can exclude profitability; investors face two-year experience and RMB500,000 thresholds.
Robin hopes that reaching one-tenth of STAR's scale would significantly advance innovation investment in Taiwan.
Facing an egg shortage, Robin offers a policy view. Extreme weather and avian influenza reduce laying rates, but structural problems include poor conditions at traditional poultry farms, an guaranteed off-take system that provides little incentive to upgrade, and aging smallholders unable to scale. His proposed response is policy support for automation, branding, and improved henhouses. Personally, he favors allowing large egg farms to conduct IPOs, raising capital for upgrades and expansion that can reduce environmental and disease risks. It is a concrete application of using capital markets to address industry problems. This is a personal policy commentary from January 2023.
Key points
Structural problems behind egg shortages include poor conditions, weak upgrade incentives under exclusive off-take arrangements, and aging smallholders.
Policy support can accelerate automation, branding, and improvements to henhouses.
Robin advocates allowing large egg farms to raise IPO capital for upgrades and expansion.
Capital markets can be a tool for industry upgrading; this is a personal policy view.
This reprint from Hulianwang Jinhua Shi recounts Netscape's August 9, 1995 IPO. The offer price rose at the last minute from US$14 to US$28. Demand was so strong that trading could not begin at 9:30; Charles Schwab even added a phone message saying, “If you are interested in Netscape's IPO, press 1.” The first trade, around 11 a.m., was at US$71, and the stock closed at US$58.25. A company only 16 months old, with US$17 million in revenue and no retained earnings, ended its first trading day worth US$2.1 billion. The Wall Street Journal said General Dynamics took 43 years to reach US$2.7 billion, while Netscape took about a minute. Barefoot on Time's cover, 24-year-old Marc Andreessen became a starting point for Silicon Valley dreams. Historical figures follow the reprinted source; original records have not been checked.
Key points
Netscape's 1995 IPO price rose from US$14 to US$28 at the last minute; the stock closed its first day at US$58.25.
Only 16 months old, with US$17 million in revenue, it reached US$2.1 billion in first-day market value.
The Wall Street Journal comparison: General Dynamics took 43 years to reach US$2.7 billion; Netscape took about a minute.
Netscape's IPO is presented as a watershed opening the internet age.
An excerpt from Tony Fadell's Build identifies three kinds of board failure. An indifferent board sees obvious CEO problems but avoids solving them because that would create too much work. A dictatorial board intervenes and controls so much that the CEO becomes like a chief operating officer, responsible only for execution. An inexperienced board does not understand the business or ask incisive questions; its companies are always short of cash, and it blames the market. Yet companies still need boards even when they are imperfect. Even the best CEO cannot act unilaterally: everyone needs accountability and a pressure-release valve. A CEO who gets this right can shape the board; the board under Jobs differed from the one under Cook. Robin recommends seeking directors with expertise you can consult and proactively asking for guidance suited to each stage.
Key points
Indifferent boards see problems but do not act: “It is not that bad, right?”
Dictatorial boards exert so much control that the CEO becomes a COO responsible only for execution.
Inexperienced boards cannot ask incisive questions, and their companies are chronically short of cash.
Even imperfect boards are necessary: CEOs need accountability and dissent, rather than acting unilaterally.
Robin recommends recruiting expert directors you can consult for guidance appropriate to each stage.
An excerpt from Tony Fadell's Build argues that the best board members are mentors first, giving as much as they take. It identifies four useful kinds of directors: well-connected mentors who have done it before and can recommend talent, such as Nest's Randy Komisar; suitable investors who understand the hardships of building a business and whom you would want to have dinner with; operators who have been CEOs and can explain operational realities when investors criticize; and specialists, such as the Gap CEO Apple recruited when entering retail. Incentives involve more than stock. Bezos even advises against joining other people's boards. Robin closes with a personal observation: average director compensation at Taiwan's listed companies is painfully low. This is a subjective impression without supporting data.
Key points
The best board members are mentors first, giving as much as they take.
Four useful types are well-connected mentors, suitable investors, operators, and specialists.
A CEO may reject the highest investment offer to secure a better board member.
Robin's subjective observation: average director compensation at Taiwan's listed companies is painfully low.
Robin reviews a landmark acquisition: cloud data company Databricks announced a US$1.3 billion acquisition of MosaicML, an AI startup less than three years old. Founded in 2021 with just 62 employees, MosaicML had disclosed only one financing round, at a US$220 million valuation; the acquisition represented a sixfold jump. Founded by a group of former Intel executives, its team enables enterprises to train and deploy AI models in secure environments. Automated training optimization promises training speeds two to seven times those of traditional methods. Databricks plans to combine its Lakehouse platform with MosaicML so enterprises can train generative AI on proprietary data at low cost. Robin's judgment: technology giants' acquisitions of generative AI startups are only beginning. Figures reflect company statements from June 2023.
Key points
Databricks announced a US$1.3 billion acquisition of MosaicML, a startup less than three years old with only 62 employees.
MosaicML's valuation rose sixfold from US$220 million.
Its platform enables secure, low-cost training and deployment of generative AI using proprietary enterprise data.
Robin's view: technology giants' acquisition wave in generative AI is only beginning.
Robin starts with the documentary Monopoly, whose conspiracy-theory elements he personally dislikes, then turns to a corporate-governance observation: looking after investors helps protect management control. Professional managers with small ownership stakes can still have secure positions if they manage foreign-investor and broader investor relations well. Can major shareholders, including foreign and institutional investors, exert influence even without voting rights? In his understanding, voting rights bring influence, but buying and selling shares can also create influence without votes. If Buffett invites Coca-Cola's CEO to dinner, it is easy to imagine the invitation being difficult to decline. Such influence accumulates little by little.
Key points
Professional managers can have secure positions despite small shareholdings if they manage investor relations well.
Voting rights confer influence; even without them, buying and selling shares can create influence.
The post argues that CEOs would find dinner invitations from Buffett or Peter Lynch difficult to decline.
Robin reviews Nintendo's April–June 2023 results. Even near the end of the Switch's product cycle, quarterly hardware sales reached 3.9 million units, up year over year, helped by The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom selling 18.51 million copies in under two months. The Super Mario Bros. Movie also generated US$1.357 billion in worldwide box office from a US$100 million budget. In simple terms, hit games lift hardware sales, while movies reconnect adults and introduce children to the intellectual property. His added market-value comparison is striking: Nintendo at ¥8 trillion, Sony at ¥16.36 trillion, and Panasonic at ¥4.03 trillion. Panasonic was worth only half as much as Nintendo. Times really are changing. Market values reflect August 2023.
Key points
Near the end of its cycle, Switch still sold 3.9 million units in a quarter, helped by 18.51 million Tears of the Kingdom copies in two months.
The Mario movie generated US$1.357 billion in global box office on a US$100 million budget.
A flywheel: games lift hardware sales, while movies broaden the audience for the intellectual property.
Panasonic's market value was only half Nintendo's—a sign of changing times.
Robin explains a common puzzle: why do many offshore companies have negative equity? A startup's Series A, B, C, and subsequent financings involve preferred shares because of their investment terms. Even when they are not redeemable, anti-dilution provisions, liquidation preferences, and other special terms can cause future share counts to change. Under IFRS accounting principles, accountants classify these preferred shares as liabilities rather than equity. For a Taiwan listing, the company converts all previously issued preferred shares into common shares at once. The amount moves from liabilities to equity, turning equity positive. He also recommends consulting a professional accountant for the details.
Key points
Special terms cause Series A, B, and C preferred shares to be classified as liabilities under IFRS.
This is the main reason given for offshore companies' often-negative equity.
Converting all preferred shares into common shares for a Taiwan listing turns equity positive.
Consult a professional accountant for the details.
Robin's personal assessment of Gogoro's (GGR) third-quarter 2023 results: battery-swapping revenue rises as the electric-scooter fleet grows, and should have a relatively high gross margin. The quarterly loss narrowed to US$3 million, while operating cash inflow for the first nine months was US$31.5 million. However, revenue declined 10% year over year, gross margin was flat, and 95% of revenue came from Taiwan, making overseas expansion the biggest concern. Short- and long-term borrowings totaled about US$300 million. If lender concerns constrain refinancing, the company would need alternatives such as a cash equity offering to strengthen its finances, although the share price at the time made that awkward. This is a personal view from November 2023. Financial figures should be checked against official announcements; it is not investment advice.
Key points
Battery-swapping revenue increases with the electric-scooter fleet and should carry a relatively high gross margin.
The quarterly loss narrowed to US$3 million; operating cash inflow for the first nine months was US$31.5 million.
Taiwan supplied 95% of revenue, making overseas expansion the biggest concern.
With US$300 million of borrowings, constrained refinancing could require a cash equity offering, though the share price at the time made that awkward.
Robin reviews GGR’s first three quarters of 2023. Revenue fell 10% amid currency effects and price cuts by gasoline-scooter rivals, but battery-swapping revenue grew 10%, or 14% excluding currency effects, and should rise with the installed base in Taiwan. Losses narrowed to US$3 million; operating cash flow and EBITDA turned positive. Concerns remain: falling startup revenue and sales are warning signs; Taiwan still supplies 95% of revenue; and US$31.5 million in operating cash inflow included US$73.29 million in depreciation added back, while ongoing battery investment contributed to total cash outflow of US$84.55 million. With over US$300 million in borrowings, cash burn could worry lenders and necessitate an awkwardly priced equity raise. Overseas expansion is the biggest concern. These are November 2023 observations.
Key points
Battery-swapping revenue grew 10–14%, a positive trend supported by the installed base.
Losses narrowed and operating cash flow turned positive, but investing activities still consumed cash.
Taiwan generated 95% of revenue; overseas expansion was the biggest concern.
Borrowings of US$300 million create a repayment-versus-equity-funding dilemma.
Robin offers five observations on recovering startup relief loans. Administrators know many recipients probably cannot repay, but must follow written rules and contracts. Civil servants who depart from those contracts risk accusations of improper favoritism or dereliction of duty. The National Development Fund is public money, subject to auditors, accounting authorities, and legislators. Officials cannot simply initiate extensions or waivers, but an external body such as the legislature can convene discussion of general rules, giving lawful implementation more flexibility. Converting relief preferred shares into common shares is also difficult: what conversion price is fair, and could par-value or net-asset-value conversion make the fund a controlling shareholder and turn a private startup into a state enterprise? Robin also calls for more innovation, investment, and open capital markets in response to AI.
Key points
Following contracts is a civil servant’s legal responsibility, not heartlessness.
General treatment guidelines should be initiated by an outside oversight body.
Preferred-to-common conversion raises pricing and state-ownership dilemmas.
The call: encourage innovation, increase investment, and open capital markets.
Robin’s investment record and promotional announcement
Reading guide
Robin records his first investment in a company headquartered in Japan with a predominantly Japanese senior management team, listing through Taiwan’s capital markets. His brief reflection: an IPO is only a new starting point, and he hopes the company will keep growing through Taiwan’s capital markets. A media link is included; the company’s name appears there. These observations date to February 2021.
Key points
First investment in a Japanese company whose senior management is predominantly Japanese.
In late October 2021, Microsoft overtook Apple in U.S. market capitalization by less than 0.5%. The top six companies’ founding years are revealing: Microsoft in 1975 and Apple in 1976 belong to the PC era; Amazon in 1994 and Google in 1998 to the internet era; Tesla in 2003 and Facebook in 2004 to the millennium generation. Google was only 23 years old yet worth nearly US$2 trillion. Robin’s reflection: over another 30 years, times and trends will keep moving quickly; the question is whether you grasp them. U.S. capital markets are highly efficient and encourage innovation, and Taiwan should move in that direction. Values and rankings refer to October 30, 2021.
Key points
The top six span the PC, internet, and millennium eras.
Google was worth nearly US$2 trillion at age 23, as of 2021.
Times and trends keep advancing; the key is whether you grasp them.
U.S. capital markets encourage innovation; Taiwan should move in that direction.
Robin guesses that fewer than 5% of general managers at Taiwan’s 2,000 listed or emerging-stock companies earn more than NT$10 million a year—less than a senior Silicon Valley engineer’s US$400,000–500,000. A Silicon Valley coder, he jokes, is Taiwan’s king of salaried workers. For comparison, cited reports put the Taiwan Stock Exchange and Taipei Exchange chairmen’s salaries and bonuses around NT$8 million, and the premier’s monthly salary and public allowance around NT$330,000, or roughly NT$4.5 million annually. His playful conclusion: his child should study hard and become an employee in Silicon Valley. These figures reflect early 2023 and quoted reporting.
Key points
Robin estimates fewer than 5% of Taiwan’s listed-company general managers earn over NT$10 million annually.
The comparison is a senior Silicon Valley engineer earning US$400,000–500,000 a year.
Quoted figures: exchange chairmen around NT$8 million and the premier around NT$4.5 million.
The joking conclusion: study hard and work in Silicon Valley.
Nintendo’s April–June 2023 results showed that even near the end of its life cycle, Switch sold 3.9 million units in a quarter, up from 3.43 million a year earlier. The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom drove the increase, selling 18.51 million copies in under two months and entering Nintendo’s top ten bestsellers. Meanwhile, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, made on a US$100 million budget, reached US$1.357 billion in worldwide box office. Robin’s conclusion: hit games lift hardware sales, while an animated movie renews adults’ Mario memories, introduces children to the intellectual property, and generates substantial box-office income. Figures reflect August 2023.
Key points
Late in its life cycle, Switch still sold 3.9 million units in a quarter.
Tears of the Kingdom sold 18.51 million copies within two months and entered the top ten.
The Mario movie reached US$1.357 billion in box office.
A flywheel: hit content lifts hardware and expands the IP’s audience.
Pixar is synonymous with creativity and innovation, while Steve Jobs participated in, influenced, or led two great industry transitions: mainframes to PCs and PCs to smartphones. Yet even Jobs had to respect capital and its influence when deciding Pixar’s future. He chose to take the company public when its first animated feature, Toy Story, opened, persuading creatives and engineers after intense internal debate. After the IPO, he worked toward Disney’s acquisition of Pixar and became Disney’s largest individual shareholder and a board member. Ten years of exile had made his understanding of capital more mature and perceptive.
Key points
Even Jobs had to respect the power of capital.
Taking Pixar public with Toy Story’s release required persuading the creative team.
He promoted Disney’s acquisition and became its largest individual shareholder.
Ten years of exile matured Jobs’s understanding of capital.
Robin notices a company openly posting its broker’s listing timetable on its website and offers two reminders. Brokers compete intensely, but should watch whether clients repurpose their plans, for example to promote fundraising by claiming an imminent listing. Protect reputation while seeking business. Investors should not get excited simply because a listing plan exists. One company signed an advisory agreement and paid NT$30,000 a month for broker staff to visit. The staff worked on other companies’ cases in a small room, while the company brought investors to look, exchange cards, and hear that listing preparations were actively under way. Their presence was the point, regardless of actual work.
Key points
A listing timetable can be repurposed as a fundraising promotional tool.
Brokers must protect their reputation.
A NT$30,000-a-month advisory presence can become a show: just have someone there.
Investors should not become excited merely at the sight of a listing plan.
A first in Taiwan’s stock-market history: IKKA-KY (第一化成控股, 2250) listed on May 31, 2021, at the pandemic’s worst point, without a listing ceremony. The Taiwan Stock Exchange thoughtfully arranged a delayed celebration at Taipei 101 on September 30, with a simultaneous WebPro broadcast. Robin’s brief comment: the exchange was considerate in arranging a make-up listing celebration for a portfolio company.
Key points
IKKA-KY listed during the pandemic without a ceremony.
The exchange held a delayed ceremony on September 30, 2021, described as a Taiwan-market first.
Robin: it was thoughtful of the exchange to arrange a celebration for a portfolio company.
Management teams have partnered with private equity funds to take companies such as Fusheng, Nien Made, LCY, and On-Bright private. The first two returned to capital markets, with Fusheng first separating its golf business; LCY and On-Bright still needed time to reorganize after their acquisitions and delistings. Privatization can simplify restructuring before relisting, while some companies seek higher price-to-earnings ratios and valuations in another market. Robin warns that abundant capital may bring more such deals but can also signal a bubble. Many private equity deals made before 2008 became difficult hot potatoes once the industry’s best moment had passed.
Key points
Fusheng, Nien Made, LCY, and On-Bright illustrate delisting and restructuring.
Privatize, restructure, then relist—or list elsewhere.
Excess capital may increase acquisition activity and indicate a bubble.
The pre-2008 lesson: after the best moment passes, a deal can become a hot potato.
Robin praises Taipei Exchange’s president, Mr. Li, and hopes to help Taiwan create a capital-market environment for innovation and entrepreneurship that supports digital transformation and upgrading. He also reads the story through its English names: Main Board, Emerging Stock Board, and Pioneer Stock Board. At the time, the Pioneer Stock Board appeared to be the highest priority. This refers to the board’s 2021 framework, which was subsequently merged.
Key points
Robin praises Taipei Exchange president Mr. Li.
The Pioneer Stock Board is described as the highest priority, as of 2021.
He hopes the capital-market environment will support digital transformation.
Robin sees market economics and access to capital as the best response to egg shortages. Extreme heat and cold reduce laying rates, while disease and avian influenza kill chickens. Traditional farms have poor conditions and unstable supply; guaranteed off-take arrangements offer little incentive to upgrade, while aging smallholders cannot scale. Policy support can accelerate transformation through automation, branding, and better poultry houses. Robin’s own proposal is direct: encourage and guide large egg farms toward IPOs so they can raise capital for upgrading and expansion, reducing environmental and disease threats.
Key points
Egg shortages reflect climate, disease, traditional farm conditions, and guaranteed off-take arrangements.
Aging smallholders lack the capacity to scale.
Robin proposes helping large egg farms raise upgrading capital through IPOs.
Access to capital can be a lever for agricultural upgrading.
Appier was scheduled to list on Japan’s Mothers market on March 31, 2021, under stock code 4180. Robin includes links to the Japanese- and English-language prospectuses on JPX and jokes that the prospectus is in Japanese. A brief record of a Taiwanese AI company listing in Japan.
Key points
Appier’s March 31, 2021, Mothers listing in Japan, stock code 4180.
An example of a Taiwanese AI company listing in Japan.
