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AI Spillovers Still Favor Hardware: AI Software Startups Need to Watch Revenue and Output per Employee

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Robin’s commentary (as of March 2024; personal impression)

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English translation of the Chinese post originally published 2024-03-28. Translated 2026-10-31 with AI assistance. Historical figures and claims have not been updated or independently verified. 中文原文

Reading guide

Returning to his post a few days earlier, Robin’s personal impression is that Taiwan receives the most pronounced AI spillover benefits, measured as additional output attributable to AI divided by population. Yet those benefits remain concentrated in hardware, including semiconductors, servers, thermal-management components, and power infrastructure. AI software and applications have not taken off. Outside the United States, however, they generally have not made an obvious revenue contribution in other countries either. Robin emphasizes that AI software startups need to focus on revenue, its growth trend, and output per employee to attract extremely expensive AI software engineers and scientists.

Key points

  • Robin’s personal impression: Taiwan sees the most pronounced AI spillover effects; not a statistical finding.
  • Benefits remain in hardware; AI software and applications have not taken off.
  • Outside the United States, AI software applications generally have not made an obvious revenue contribution.
  • AI software startups need to watch revenue, revenue growth, and output per employee to attract costly talent.
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Full text — English translation

Returning to my post from a few days ago. The United States started this AI wave and is its biggest beneficiary. Beyond the U.S., my personal impression is that Taiwan is probably the country seeing the most pronounced AI spillover benefits worldwide—additional output contributed by AI divided by population. Yet those spillovers remain in hardware-related areas, including semiconductors, servers, thermal-management components, and power infrastructure. What is unfortunate is that AI software and applications have yet to take off. This is not just Taiwan’s situation, though. Outside the United States, AI software and applications generally have not made an obvious contribution to revenue in other countries either. Let me emphasize this again: AI software startups must focus on revenue and its growth trend, and on output per employee, to attract extremely expensive AI software engineers and scientists. https://udn.com/news/story/6839/7859053

These articles are personal notes, book excerpts, and collected reprints. Figures and events reflect the time of the original publication, are not current information, and do not constitute investment advice.

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