English translation of the Chinese post originally published 2021-01-30. Translated 2026-11-05 with AI assistance. Historical figures and claims have not been updated or independently verified. 中文原文
Full text — English translation
Verification notes (2026-10-28):
1. The statement “In 2017, Microsoft’s market capitalization also exceeded US$1 trillion…” should say 2019. Microsoft first exceeded US$1 trillion on April 25, 2019. Sources:
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2019/04/25/microsoft-hits-1-trillion-market-cap-for-the-first-time-on-earnings.html https://www.cbsnews.com/news/microsoft-1-trillion-market-value-reached-today/
2. “On his first day in office, he took out an iPhone in front of employees”: the documented public event was Nadella’s iPhone demonstration at Dreamforce in September 2015. No supporting evidence was found for “his first day in office.” Sources:
https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-used-iphone-2015-9 https://www.geekwire.com/2015/microsoft-ceo-satya-nadella-keeps-playing-nice-with-bay-area-tech-scene-at-salesforce-conference/
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#Microsoft #Refresh
Microsoft, abbreviated here as MS, was founded in 1975. By 2005 it had encountered a huge obstacle, although it did not yet understand what that obstacle was.
MS dominated the PC era. Its Wintel alliance with Intel ruled its industry for a long time. As the mobile internet quietly arrived, many businesses failed to appreciate that the post-PC era had begun.
MS had in fact sensed the threat. It tried to move from supplying operating systems and core applications for PCs to supplying them on mobile devices—that is, phones.
It made many efforts, including its later acquisitions of Nokia and Skype, all intended to restore its former glory. But an obstacle of this magnitude is not easy to perceive. Only after putting in more effort and resources and repeatedly failing do you realize that the obstacle is real and may be fatal.
Through a series of efforts, this PC-era dominant player gradually demonstrated to itself and others that it could not restore its former glory. For nine years after 2005, MS went from confidence to repeated defeats.
By 2014, an almost unspoken consensus had formed inside MS: unless this company, still living off the legacy of the PC era, changed dramatically, its fate was obvious—it would gradually be pushed out.
The direct sign of change was the retirement of Steve Ballmer, a college classmate of founder Bill Gates, and the appointment of Satya Nadella, an Indian-born professional manager with an unassuming image whom many doubted. Some believed that reviving MS required completely changing its DNA by bringing in an outside CEO with no attachment to its products, systems, or culture and the forcefulness to transform it.
We know what happened next. Within just three years, MS made a comeback, despite being widely seen as past its prime, incompatible with the mobile internet, and perhaps destined to be eliminated by it.
At the time, Apple was advancing rapidly and exceeded a trillion dollars in market capitalization, while MS remained around US$200–300 billion. Yet in 2017, MS also surpassed US$1 trillion and again became the most valuable technology company.
Today, although its market capitalization remains below Apple’s, MS is a US$1.6–1.7 trillion company. Over the past decade or two, its development has resembled a roller coaster: falling from dominance toward irrelevance, then unexpectedly recovering and returning to prominence.
The MS story reminds us not to judge a company too quickly, even when its problems are obvious or it seems in terminal decline. A company or industry may contain an internal logic outsiders do not understand that allows it to revive and recover.
We should judge companies cautiously: form a view, but also maintain the habit of suspending judgment.
Think back to how we viewed Tesla a few years ago and how we view it today. How did we see it when it was posting huge losses, continually raising enormous amounts of money, and seemingly at constant risk of collapse? Think, too, of Elon Musk’s offhand talk of taking Tesla private or smoking marijuana on a show a few years ago, compared with its performance today. These contrasts show why suspending judgment matters.
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Microsoft’s refresh occurred on three levels.
First came products. This is quite difficult, and compared with the other two levels, it is the most important. The shift is from tangible PCs to infrastructure-level computing services. In the past, the computer mattered; today, computing matters, and it is everywhere. The world is also shifting from information technology toward intelligence technology, requiring a corresponding change in products.
Refreshing systems and management is harder than refreshing products. Nadella’s effective transformation of MS came to a considerable extent from rebuilding its systems and management. Harder still is refreshing culture. The success of MS’s transformation is directly tied to Nadella himself.
Gates said Nadella’s advantage was that he had worked at MS for 22 years and understood it best. Yet many people had been there longer. His greatest distinction was not his knowledge of MS, but a quality its culture sorely lacked and its transformation urgently needed—a quality cultivated through disadvantage and even suffering.
Nadella differed greatly from favored figures such as Gates and Ballmer. He grew up in a disadvantaged social and cultural environment, and his particular experiences made the values and behavior developed there more pronounced.
Nadella has two children: one with cerebral palsy and another with a learning disability. Raising and educating them taught him the profound importance of empathy—considering problems and relating to people from their perspective. In working to improve an already difficult situation, he emphasized empathy through his actions rather than his words.
At the product level, he wanted MS products, dominated by an arrogant engineering culture, to embody empathy for customers. Before that, the product philosophy, management systems, and competitive approach shaped by Gates and Ballmer had been noticeably arrogant and forceful.
He brought empathy not only into products, but also into relationships with competitors, between departments, and between managers and employees. That meant moving from confrontation toward cooperation, even taking an apparently weaker position by offering MS products and services on competitors’ products and platforms.
On his first day in office, he took out an iPhone in front of employees, causing a stir. His explanation was that MS should acknowledge its competitor’s strength and quietly accomplish a great deal on Apple’s platform. Internally, strongly competing departments needed to put aside arrogance and prejudice and cooperate. Empathy lay behind all of this.
To define this empathy more precisely, it is an empathy that adopts a less dominant stance, grounded in cooperation, coordination, and constructive engagement.
Nadella’s personality helped Microsoft move from a dominant-player mindset to a servant mindset, enabling a real business and product shift from products to services and from industry ruler to service platform. In substance, it moved from being product-centered to being customer-centered.
Without substantive renewal in products, management systems, and culture, even capabilities and resources suited to new industry trends would not have been enough to produce a genuine refresh and a remarkable comeback.
#Dedao #WuBofanWeeklyBusinessCommentary
These articles are personal notes, book excerpts, and collected reprints. Figures and events reflect the time of the original publication, are not current information, and do not constitute investment advice.
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