SpaceX and xAI Near a Combined Listing: A Trillion-Dollar Valuation Needs a Bigger Narrative

My personal impression is that this is happening because SpaceX and xAI are approaching a combined listing. But with the valuation aiming for a trillion dollars, consider the numbers: SpaceX’s EBITDA is reportedly US$8 billion. We do not yet know the amounts for depreciation, interest, amortization, and income taxes. My subjective estimate is that these account for 60–80%. If we put SpaceX’s net income at US$3 billion, while xAI is presumably still losing money, the combined SpaceX + xAI would probably be only slightly loss-making or slightly profitable. Yet to support a trillion-dollar market capitalization, or even US$1.5 trillion, Elon Musk has to package an even bigger story for capital markets. That includes space-based computing centers and the largest wafer-fab project in human history. The bigger the claims, the more excited capital markets become; the more excited the market becomes, the higher SpaceX’s and xAI’s share prices and market capitalizations go... This would also lift Tesla’s market capitalization. After all, one of the staged conditions—possibly the largest component—of the biggest compensation package in human history, the trillion-dollar pay plan, is to raise Tesla’s market capitalization to US$8.5 trillion. Perhaps, to achieve that target, Tesla will at some point merge SpaceX and xAI into itself and count their combined market capitalization. Let us assume SpaceX + xAI has US$1 billion in net income, although my instinct is that it does not. A market capitalization above a trillion dollars would imply a price-to-earnings ratio above 1,000—or make it the only trillion-dollar technology giant still losing money. That leaves Musk needing to package a grand vision, a grand narrative, and a grand ambition for human interplanetary settlement. ---- According to news reports: SpaceX has strong financial performance, with estimated 2025 revenue of US$15–16 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) of about US$8 billion. Its main source of profit is the Starlink satellite service, which contributes 50–80% of total revenue. Supported by strong earnings, SpaceX plans an IPO in mid-2026, with its valuation expected to exceed US$1.5 trillion.