Startup Scenario Planning: Cash Flow and Talent
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Collected in Robin Shen’s Field Notes · Content type and attribution are shown above
English translation of the Chinese post originally published 2022-03-28. Translated 2026-10-28 with AI assistance. Historical figures and claims have not been updated or independently verified. 中文原文
Reading guide
Many factors cause startups to fail; running out of funding is probably the main one. Watch cash flow constantly and prepare more than one script in which fundraising succeeds and problems disappear. Smooth operations plus smooth fundraising are rare; setbacks, harder fundraising, core-team departures, and giant competitors are more common. Prepare for varied and worst-case scenarios. Stable cash flow keeps you from losing in the short term; the right talent is what lets you win. Find a way to attract exceptional people, as Liu Bei’s three visits illustrate. Different talent models have trade-offs: Netflix’s high pay, top performers, strict removal of low performers, and “not a family” approach is harsh but effective; others favor a family atmosphere. Make your culture clear and find people who fit.
Key points
- Running out of funding is a major cause of failure; prepare several scenarios.
- Cash flow prevents defeat; talent enables success.
- Netflix-style versus family-style: culture shapes whom you recruit.

Full text — English translation
These articles are personal notes, book excerpts, and collected reprints. Figures and events reflect the time of the original publication, are not current information, and do not constitute investment advice.
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