Venture Capital & Investing

Reading guide

Robin highlights two points. First, in the internet era, those with the most connections win. He cites Tencent’s shift after the 3Q conflict toward investing in JD.com, Pinduoduo, and others to build an ecosystem. Second is the power of capital and the connections it creates. The interview excerpt describes each fundraising round as a chance to explain the company’s plans to the market. It also reflects on subsidy battles and wars of attrition: the market will not give you money when you truly need it.

Reading guide

When discussing acquisitions and mergers, we usually consider synergies, but price is another critical factor. Robin argues that strategically minded entrepreneurs can look beyond the immediate price. Investors often deliberate over one or two units, or even half a unit, in the entry share price, but for a genuinely attractive investment this is insignificant beside the prospect of returns exceeding tenfold. Buying is an art; holding and exiting are harder. He says the holding period is what truly determines returns, and exiting too early or too late has the greatest impact.

Reading guide

The post first excerpts Lei Jun’s views: fundraising is a confidence game, easiest when you do not need money. Start raising when half the cash is spent; with no cash left, bargaining power is nearly gone. Robin then offers eight suggestions: the fundraising paradox is that money attracts money; begin the next round before half is spent; match burn rate to fundraising pace; investors who fear a difficult next round or a down round may discount or decline this one; cash gives negotiating confidence; win existing investors’ support, ideally with stable backers holding at least 30%; produce clear results that bring investors to you; and tailor the pitch to each investor.

Reading guide

Robin writes to young venture capital professionals: VCs often tell founders to focus, cut back on nonessential activities, and stop chasing trends, yet frequently chase trends themselves. In his ten years in the industry, the hot sector has changed almost every one or two years—from games, software, the internet, and the sharing economy to AI, blockchain, electric vehicles, and the metaverse. He argues that VCs should calmly identify their core strengths and what makes them irreplaceable, then build those strengths deliberately. With enough accumulated resources, they may even create a trend themselves. The advice VCs give founders applies equally to their own careers.

Reading guide

Someone asks how angel investing differs from an angel fund. In Robin’s basic understanding, angel groups—of which Taiwan has several—discuss incoming opportunities, then each angel decides individually whether to invest, using their own money and taking responsibility for their own decisions. An angel fund pools money under unified management and makes a collective invest-or-pass decision; in that sense, it can be viewed as institutional investing. Angel groups charge membership fees, whereas funds charge management fees, such as 2%, and share investment profits, such as 20%; these are examples. He welcomes corrections and additions from practitioners.

Reading guide

Robin offers five points on fundraising prices: research the market first, with an asking price supported by evidence, comparisons, and calculations. Seeking investors means seeking partners—not demanding they pay your price because you think the company is wonderful. Investing is a confidence game; starting high and cutting repeatedly, for example from 150 million to 50 million, erodes confidence. Competitive investor demand may allow a modest increase, but otherwise investors tend to wait. Do not negotiate an investment when you have no bargaining chips left.

Reading guide

Robin argues that industries and economies cycle through bubbles, slumps, and recovery. Uncompetitive companies are eliminated, while survivors reach new highs; he cites Google and Amazon after the 2000 dot-com bubble. Crises also incubate larger opportunities: Bitcoin and blockchain, the sharing economy, cloud services, and SaaS emerged after 2008. As another storm gathers in 2022, he argues that early-stage investors should think harder about the next big thing and position themselves a year or two ahead—waiting where the wind will blow rather than chasing it.

Reading guide

Robin looks back at years of abundant global capital, when FOMO and the belief that another buyer would always come along encouraged fast decisions even on marginal deals. Since the second half of the previous year, tighter capital has made investors more rational and slowed peers’ decisions: deals they might once have taken or passed on are now declined. Startups must reconsider their venture and explain why it is necessary; simplification becomes the central concern. Investors should return to fundamentals, verify more, and judge independently. Do not convince yourself too easily: the person most likely to deceive you may be yourself.

Reading guide

Robin notes that after a full day of pitches, investors may not remember every company’s details, but parts of a story can leave a strong impression. Learning to tell a memorable short story within limited time is a trainable skill. He cautions against overused stories even when true: like an entrance-exam essay grader reading one grandmother story after another, investors can become weary. Many PhD founders of biotech drug companies begin with a family member’s cancer inspiring them to develop treatments; repeated often enough, the story loses some emotional impact.

Reading guide

Bao Fan first describes Series A, B, and C: A validates technology or a product people use and explores the business model; B funds replication at scale; C approaches an IPO and supports formal systems or industry consolidation. Robin then outlines the stages: seed and angel rounds build the product and explore demand; pre-A and A find product–market fit and a profitable model; B rapidly replicates it, with exponential revenue growth but not necessarily profits; C and later deepen the moat, expand broadly, and prepare for an IPO. Lean startup means rapid, low-cost trial and error, then scaling once PMF is found.

Reading guide

The post recounts WeMo Scooter’s 2020 Series A led by AppWorks and a further investment of several million US dollars in February 2023 to support Southeast Asian expansion. Robin is a WeMo user and likes the founder’s ideas, but asks how it will compete or cooperate with local giants such as Grab and GoTo. Capital needs, customers, pricing, and the business model all matter. More fundamentally, has WeMo, founded seven years earlier, found a profitable model in Taiwan that it can export? Otherwise, burning cash on two fronts could exhaust the new money quickly.

Reading guide

In February 2013, Robin left underwriting—the financial sector broadly speaking—and joined TTVC with a mission to help small and medium-sized businesses transform and grow. Ten years passed. Initially, he approached investing with an underwriting mindset, seeking mature companies near IPO scale. Some portfolio companies multiplied their market capitalization, including thirtyfold growth to unicorn scale. Yet investing in these mature businesses often amounted to adding to existing success. More recently, he has spent more time finding early-stage opportunities, believing that innovation and investment can move Taiwan forward while he continues to play a small part.

Reading guide

The post quotes Zhang Yiming’s four reasons for rejecting a major company’s investment offer within his company’s first year: resources can act like stimulants and suppress internal capabilities, distort strategy, draw a startup into battles between giants, and make it harder to attract top talent than remaining independent. Robin comments that nothing is wholly good: gaining something means giving something in exchange. CVC may be praised, but it has two sides. Before major decisions, return to the original vision: what company do you want to build, and do you want acquisition or an independent IPO? Every choice brings gains and losses.

Reading guide

Robin argues that investment failures are part of everyday life in venture capital. People often ask why prominent VCs invested in FTX. His personal experience is that missing a good investment can have a much greater impact than making a bad one. In a portfolio of ten equally weighted investments, one failed deal costs 10%; missing a winner could mean forgoing a 10–30x return, or potentially 100–1,000x in the United States. VC is not about maximizing the success rate. That creates intense fear of missing out and a willingness to pay relatively high prices. VCs trust that time favors good companies: Facebook’s shares halved shortly after its IPO, yet it ultimately reached a market capitalization of 1.3 trillion, as the post approximately describes it.

Reading guide

Quoting school principal Li Xigui’s observation that ‘specifics bring depth,’ Robin argues that how concretely founders describe problems and details affects investors’ interest. His supervisor often remarks that startup presentations explain the industry and overall direction fluently but become vague about operational details, leaving him uneasy about investing. The best VC investment has everything in place except the final catalyst: the team has worked through the pitfalls from MVP to product-market fit and needs capital to scale rather than continue finding its way. Robin emphasizes two capabilities for entrepreneurial success: acting quickly and observing problems concretely.

Reading guide

The post opens with Luo Zhenyu’s observation that every era unfolds its own story while laying the groundwork for the next. Robin writes that capital in each era should do more than attend to the work immediately at hand: it should carry a larger mission and vision for opening a new era. VC practitioners can take on that sense of responsibility. Their work can serve the present and benefit generations to come. They should try to bring meaningful change to their time and the world, so that people looking back can see how pivotal choices and commitments helped create a better present.

Reading guide

Robin shares a lesson from interviewing startup teams. When he asks why something happened, answer A often describes an outcome rather than a cause. Do not settle for a surface-level answer. Ask why five times to uncover deeper causes, forcing yourself to think more deeply as well. Questioning can upgrade your thinking, moving you from not knowing what you do not know to recognizing those gaps. Many founders discover, through an investor’s follow-up questions, that they have never really considered a particular issue.

Reading guide

Robin describes a16z as the venture capital firm most adept at media promotion and grand narratives today. Earlier firms such as Sequoia and KPCB let entrepreneurs take the applause while remaining in the audience. With a16z, VCs also moved into the spotlight, publishing extensively to explain their view of opportunities and communicate the future to founders and the public. Its ‘software is eating the world’ narrative helped define that era. Robin mentions narrative economics in relation to Bitcoin and considers how grand narratives might connect more effectively with venture capital work in Taiwan.

Reading guide

The opening section reprints a Liepin WeChat article about bosses making grand promises to employees and how employees can recognize and respond to them. Robin adds that early-stage investors also hear founders describe grand visions, missions, and ambitions every day. Investors need to do their own homework and test whether those dreams are feasible, rather than accepting only the founder’s account or rushing into a decision out of FOMO. Nor should they become so conservative that they miss opportunities: sometimes belief must come before seeing.

Reading guide

The opening reprint from Wan Weigang describes entrepreneurs as people who create surprises. Robin contrasts two investment approaches. Some Silicon Valley investors deliberately seek ideas that sound outrageous and astonishing, pursuing power-law outcomes: one investment out of a hundred succeeds, the other ninety-nine fail, but the winner returns 10,000 times the investment. He adds that there may not be many such investors. Most Taiwanese investors, by contrast, examine feasibility and prospects carefully, point by point. Yet when everything can be calculated clearly and no fog remains, the truly extraordinary, enduring investments often stay out of reach.

Reading guide

The opening excerpts urge startups to be extremely cautious about bringing in strategic investors, especially when their related businesses overlap with the startup’s core business. Robin adds that a large corporate investor offers reputation, money, and apparent resources, but those resources may not actually be available. Each business unit has its own profit targets. A startup may also be labeled as having chosen sides, end up serving the group’s strategy, or face intervention in its management. He recommends a mix of strategic and financial investors to create balance and preserve room for the startup.

Reading guide

After seeing a Taiwanese startup group discuss the value of exhibiting at Meet Taipei, Robin describes it as a startup carnival that offers visibility in the Asia-Pacific region and a stage for new companies. It can also encourage public and government support for entrepreneurship. He suggests established, larger startups can leave places for ventures only one or two years old. Exhibitors should talk with investors, report progress, seek integration opportunities, and visit overseas startups’ booths. After eleven editions, the event itself should also seek new directions and continue influencing policy and resource allocation.

Reading guide

Robin sees different investment expectations as a matter of stage. A team still building an MVP and seeking product-market fit will naturally be losing money and needs investors willing to take early-stage risks. After PMF, investors want more numbers and evidence. The critical question is whether the team has found a business model capable of profitability. Expanding staff and replicating at scale before doing so often hastens failure. A Taiwanese team pushed overseas by fundraising narratives or investors before validating its model at home may burn money in both markets without clear results.

Reading guide

Robin and his supervisor asked several startups about preparing for the Taiwan Innovation Board and received cautious responses, largely reflecting doubts about their appeal after listing. He argues that this is precisely the critical moment to plan how to survive a funding winter. Rising global uncertainty will make fundraising harder. He offers four suggestions: customer revenue is preferable to shareholder funding; prepare rather than expecting fundraising to solve everything; create a fresh financing plan investors can believe in; and develop a capital-market plan to improve the ability to endure.

Reading guide

The opening news account describes TWSE and the venture capital association encouraging venture firms and their portfolio companies to enter capital markets, including the Taiwan Innovation Board. Robin relays the association chairman’s hope that ten listed venture firms of 3–5 billion each could provide 30–50 billion for sustained early- and mid-stage investment in Taiwan. The latter amount would be less than roughly 0.02% of national wealth, yet could support transformation and upgrading. Although VC is a small alternative-investment category, he notes its backing behind many of the largest US companies.

Reading guide

The opening reprint asks founders to consider three questions before approaching investors: why did this happen, what solutions are available, and which is best and why? Robin adds that investors do not want to hear only when a crisis is already urgent. Thinking through the problem and options first makes a better impression. Raising more money should not be the sole answer, nor does relying on investors’ money help founders develop. Ideally, portfolio-company discussions concern the pleasant challenges of growing too fast, receiving acquisition offers, or choosing among listing invitations.

Reading guide

Robin’s supervisor asks how many companies with successful recent listings previously pitched at startup matchmaking events. Robin observes that earlier Taiwanese entrepreneurs often grew by solving customers’ practical problems: air-conditioning graduates moved into cleanrooms and semiconductor facilities, while engineers from major electronics firms and ITRI founded businesses after learning market needs. He calls for closer links between entrepreneurship, Taiwan’s core strengths, and its capital markets. A resource-limited island should focus on advantages rather than seek gold medals in every event. Ventures beginning overseas are different. For Taiwanese founders raising abroad, semiconductor work with TSMC may attract more interest than software platforms serving only Taiwanese customers.

Reading guide

The opening audio-summary excerpts argue that performance is often weakest in the year after fundraising, as attention shifts from doing the work to proving the company deserves the money. Robin adds that pursuing an excessive valuation, raising capital, then failing to deliver expected results pushes a team toward a cliff. Startups do not always starve; many overfeed themselves. Immediate hiring and advertising expansion can raise expenses before the organization, product, user experience, and sales are ready. Faster cash burn then makes the next funding round a harsh test.

Reading guide

Robin agrees with Jian (簡老師)’s view that a venture developing in Taiwan should connect with Taiwan’s core strengths and stand on giants’ shoulders. He relays a senior VC colleague’s question: if an AI inquiry reports iCHEF revenue above 400 million, a return to profitability, and a one-billion acquisition by 91APP, does that anchor the ceiling for Taiwanese software startups at around one billion? For investors with limited capital, the question is where the highest potential return multiples can be created.

Reading guide

The opening reprint from Sam Altman argues that successful people have usually made at least one correct prediction others thought wrong. Self-belief needs self-awareness: hear criticism on the initial assumption that it is true. Robin adds that founders are often confident and optimistic. As a VC, he frequently tells them that his views are personal, and that if theirs differ, they should not let him override their judgment. Many VCs remain open to learning. Founders likewise need humility, respect for uncertainty, and openness, because entrepreneurship contains so many pitfalls they do not know they do not know.

Reading guide

The opening passage relays views from Chen Zhiwu and Peter Thiel on venture capital’s role. Robin adds four observations: only around 1–2% of US startups receive VC, comparable to Taiwan and perhaps lower; VC is an alternative asset representing a tiny share of total financial assets, possibly below 0.1%; that capital nevertheless drives entrepreneurship, technological change, and economic transformation; and Taiwan’s large businesses, financial institutions, family offices, and wealthy individuals could allocate 1–2% of assets to early-stage and venture investment.

Reading guide

Robin discusses choosing between venture capital and corporate venture capital. Beyond the familiar concern of being labeled or forced to take sides, a large company has its own interests and long-term business considerations. He cites Alphabet’s investments in both Uber and Lyft, alongside litigation between Waymo and Uber, as an example of a delicate relationship. CVC seeks business synergies and explores deep integration, potentially exposing almost everything about a startup to a large company and creating new risks. Investment always involves trade-offs; keeping the relationship simpler is also a choice.

Reading guide

Asked in a community discussion about the most unusual corporate investment he had heard of, Robin named South Africa’s MIH investment in Tencent. He describes MIH acquiring 45.5% from PCCW, IDG, and Tencent’s founders for around US$32 million in the internet downturn of 2001–2002, becoming its largest single shareholder before its stake declined. With Tencent’s peak market capitalization around US$500 billion, he calculates roughly US$100 billion in gains from that investment. He regards it as perhaps the greatest VC or CVC transaction in history.

Reading guide

Reflecting on VC’s role in innovation, the author argues it must connect talent, policy, and markets as well as capital, and share entrepreneurs’ risk of failure. Taiwan’s fortieth VC anniversary becomes a call to accept responsibility for the next generation of industry.

Reading guide

A fixed fund life can force investors to exit before good companies continue growing. Beginning with the tension between long-term ownership and shareholder liquidity, this column considers how evergreen VC and public listings might change investment horizons, exits, and room for early-stage investing.

Reading guide

Looking back at the Great Tree Pharmacy investment, the author sets out four assessment layers: industry potential, competitive structure, the team’s ability to change the industry, and resources a VC can provide. Systems, sharing success with employees, culture, and capital-market capabilities matter more than store counts alone.

Reading guide

Founders and investors should sit on the same side of the table. Investors help founders solve problems and face challenges, caring not only about short-term orders or user counts but also their direction and thinking when choosing a path.

Reading guide

New investors can use several books to build a coherent system and methodology. At some point, Robin argues, they should leave the textbook framework behind. After over a decade of experience, including the 2008 crisis, he believes exceptional investments cannot be assessed solely through due diligence. Excessively rigid investigations may select mediocrity. Investments producing thousandfold or ten-thousandfold returns may initially look completely implausible, yet achieve extraordinary results.

Reading guide

Robin argues that low interest rates, inflation, and wages, alongside exchange-rate controls, have prolonged the survival of firms needing to upgrade or exit. He sees a positive role for inflation and normalizing rates, exchange rates, and prices in stimulating transformation. Major improvement, he believes, requires innovation and investment, directing a small portion of capital toward early-stage venture opportunities and future trends.

Reading guide

Responding to Facebook claims that donations merely move money between pockets, Robin argues that few people give away their entire wealth. He favors the Gates Foundation over governments, less effective foundations, or direct gifts to individuals, believing it can maximize impact through health, medicine, and education in developing countries and billions in annual spending. He considers foreign billionaires’ thinking worth learning from: Buffett pledged 99% of his wealth, mainly to the foundation, while Larry Page preferred entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk who seek to change the world over conventional charities.