Venture Capital & Investing

Reading guide

Robin begins with Facebook’s famous financing story: Reid Hoffman introduced twenty-year-old Zuckerberg to Peter Thiel in 2004. Thiel invested US$500,000 for 7%, and Hoffman added US$40,000. The point is the trust behind the introduction rather than the amount. The later section reuses ‘Why Should I Invest in You?’ Angel investing is personal, offers limited scope for due diligence or management involvement, and demands integrity. Unsolicited business plans rarely succeed; if friends and relatives will not support you, other angels are hard to persuade. Lei Jun’s investments in acquaintances and Jerry Yang’s fifty or sixty unsuccessful calls illustrate why unfamiliarity discourages investment.

Reading guide

Notes from Silicon Valley 101’s discussion of the Middle East. The Arabic-speaking Middle East and North Africa is described as a roughly 400-million-person cultural market with similar language and culture. The Gulf Cooperation Council states, described as about 100 million people, are the wealthiest segment. The proposed path is to validate the business in Dubai, around four million people, expand quickly across the Gulf, then reach the wider region. Dubai’s ecosystem is described as self-sustaining, while Riyadh and Abu Dhabi remain government-led. Saudi Arabia’s PIF and Abu Dhabi sovereign funds, each described at hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars, are active investors. Robin recommends the episode to startups seeking overseas markets.

Reading guide

The article first acknowledges David Swensen’s pioneering contribution to endowments and alternative investments, then recounts Buffett and Munger’s criticism of Robinhood for turning shares into casino chips. Robinhood responds that elitist commentary blocks broader participation. Then-SEC chair Gary Gensler also worries that platforms turn stocks into games and encourage more trading. Buffett’s advice to fear others’ greed and stop digging when in a hole leads to a reminder that platforms should prioritize users’ financial health. Robin concludes that investing should return to reason and value creation rather than become a giant casino. Robinhood’s planned IPO refers to 2021.

Reading guide

In his New Year’s Day 2022 reflection, Robin observes that the pandemic changed life and work. Rather than chase every change, invest resources in enduring fundamentals. At work, portfolio company 91APP listed and became a Taiwan-born startup unicorn with market value above 30 billion; Great Tree’s revenue exceeded ten billion, and Zhen Yu Hardware listed on the OTC market. These were milestones, not endpoints. Robin sees VC itself as a traditional industry that must evolve; Taiwan’s VC, corporate VC, and private equity sectors need their own paths. He anticipates Web3, the metaverse, and digital assets shaping the next decade. Personally, he continues learning how to parent Shen Xiaobao. Values, revenue, and project progress reflect the end of 2021.

Reading guide

An overview of Alibaba in early 2021. Core commerce formed a domestic/international and retail/wholesale 2×2 matrix, including Taobao, Tmall, 1688, AliExpress, and Lazada. In the global ‘3A1G’ cloud landscape, AliCloud had the largest share in China and Asia-Pacific. Digital media and entertainment included Youku, UC, and Alibaba Sports; innovative businesses included Amap and DingTalk. Investments included roughly 10% of Didi, 20% of Suning, full ownership of Ele.me, and over 70% of Intime. Cainiao covered 224 countries and territories and 2,800 Chinese cities and counties. Ownership, valuation, and structure reflect early 2021 and have since changed substantially.

Reading guide

An imagined scene from The Power Law: an engineer at a large company has a great idea but an unsupportive boss—Christensen’s innovator’s dilemma. Without VC, the idea dies. With VC, a conversation opens: quit and I will invest; never founded a business? I will help; need engineers? We have a database; worried about failure? We can find work elsewhere in the portfolio. Eric Schmidt reportedly joined Google because John Doerr promised another CEO role if it failed. VC offers more than money: it makes risk less frightening. Robin says Taiwan’s VC industry must work harder at helping founders build teams and introducing senior executives.

Reading guide

Beginning with Musk teasing Buffett for not investing early in Tesla, the article collects Buffett’s circle-of-competence ideas. Size matters less than knowing the boundary; someone who knows it can become wealthier than someone with a circle five times larger who does not. ‘We have no way to knock out Tyson’: do only what you can handle. Understanding what you do not know matters more than what you know. If no investment inspires confidence, wait rather than widen the range. Robin distinguishes knowing boundaries from learning to expand them. Buffett’s reading, independent thinking, avoidance of noise, and patience show how extraordinary results can emerge within known limits.

Reading guide

A legendary story describes a retired Navy SEAL, John Jin’en, whose armored-vehicle company lacked money for a second-generation prototype. A large black box in the showroom was presented as holding a top-secret vehicle. Curious investors supplied funding, the vehicle was built and sold out—but the box had been empty. Robin is reserved: he does not recommend this and sees a parallel with Theranos’s Elizabeth Holmes. Delivery may bring hero status and failure fraud allegations, yet successful delivery does not erase earlier false statements. Advertising also sells imagined futures; delivery is the distinction the story proposes. Details are reproduced from the retelling and have not been verified.

Reading guide

An investment scenario: the sector is hot and growth impressive, but investment manager R has not fully understood the destination or path. Should he invest? Early-stage teams and investors often cannot see the endgame or sequence clearly. R identifies three situations. A clear story, well-developed thinking, and strong data attract fierce competition. A great storyteller with ordinary products and metrics warrants more observation; experienced investors have learned from years of being misled. The key is the second case: a good product, favorable market momentum, and rapid growth without a clear path. R would try to advance the investment and then jointly explore operating data, traffic conversion, and possible business models. An aside: R is short of deals.

Reading guide

Robin reviews eight investment waves during pandemic-shadowed 2021: Clubhouse’s early surge and later silence, though audio-based knowledge sharing strengthened; electric vehicles ahead of carmakers’ combustion-engine deadlines; AI and robotics; space travel and low-Earth-orbit satellites, including Bezos, Branson, and Starlink; the metaverse, propelled by Facebook and NVIDIA; blockchain-based Web3 and its connection to metaverse narratives; biotechnology and gene editing; and quieter but continuing SaaS development. In a tenfold-speed era, he expects faster progress over the coming decade, with VC continuing to enable change. These judgments reflect late 2021, not current investment advice.

Reading guide

Taiwan Cement announced increased low-carbon cement investment in Turkey and Portugal at a late-night material information press conference. The backdrop is the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The article describes an initial five-sector scope—cement, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, and electricity—representing about 45% of the EU carbon market. Of 248 covered products, Taiwan supplies 212, mainly steel products. Robin argues that Taiwan’s later start in emissions-related investment requires faster action to avoid carbon charges and export constraints. Local production can reduce transport emissions and accelerate supply-chain restructuring. Timelines and statistics reflect 2023.

Reading guide

Robin sees a classic Taiwanese angel-investing case. In 2015, 500 Startups launched 500 Rookies, Taiwan’s first student VC fund. Six students trained for almost a year independently led a US$5,000 investment in voiceprint-encryption payment tool TapPay. In 2022, PChome subsidiary 21st Century announced a share swap and strategic investment totaling NT$940 million to merge with TapPay’s parent, Cherri Tech. Its Cross-site no-redirect technology, Apple and Google payment-processing licenses in Taiwan in 2017, and payment volume above NT$50 billion in 2021 illustrate the trajectory. The guide contrasts that student-fund investment with what it describes as a 900-million merger nine years later.

Reading guide

Robin’s personal judgment is that anyone choosing to invest in China should seek sectors the government currently supports, or at least does not strongly suppress. He lists internet services, fintech such as Ant, education, healthcare, property, entertainment, gaming, and livestreaming as targets of pressure. Supported fields tend to involve hardware or perceived social stability: semiconductor self-sufficiency, critical components, surveillance, AI and IoT smart cities, agricultural and food security, defense, aerospace and satellites, EVs, batteries, energy, environmental protection, and industrial automation. These are personal observations from May 2022, not investment advice.

Reading guide

The article challenges common misconceptions: Amazon did not go ten years without profit. Founded in 1994, it first reported a quarterly profit in Q4 2001 and a full-year profit in 2003, with intervening losses attributed to the September 11 shock. It listed in under three years and raised only US$48 million, less than many companies’ Series B rounds today. Nor was it always favored by Wall Street: value remained depressed after the internet bubble, before a post-2009 transformation led investors to value it as a technology company. The closing reflection favors examining one’s own actions over attributing others’ success to benefactors or inventing excuses.

Reading guide

Media, content, distribution, and influence have become part of venture capital fundraising in Europe and the United States. Finance has used this approach for years: expanding influence through media and broad distribution to influence or even manipulate prices. Internet-enabled influence has spread into e-commerce, through influencer livestream selling, and other fields. The quoted article says that the ability to propagate a viewpoint at scale is a new and significant function in financial markets. Firms such as a16z build their own media platforms, while individual VCs use Twitter, podcasts, and YouTube. Their ability to shape portfolio companies’ narratives can affect hiring, capital costs, and exits. Creators with large audiences can also use their influence to enter investing.

Reading guide

Robin’s reading notes on Tsinghua professor Xuan Tian’s Finance and Innovation: A New Framework: statistical analysis, experimental research, and a literature review offer empirical evidence on how U.S. capital markets and venture capital affect corporate innovation. Key points include VC’s contribution to innovation through active involvement, board seats, governance frameworks, and knowledge transfer that help companies avoid detours. Tolerance for failure supports innovation, but fund life cycles and fundraising difficulties constrain VCs’ risk tolerance. The resulting inference is that established, reputable firms face fewer capital constraints and tolerate more risk and failure; funds with lives of 10–12 years can tolerate failure better than those lasting 3–5 years.

Reading guide

Paradigm partner Casey Caruso’s early-stage due diligence checklist starts with founders: the team is the constant in the early-stage equation, so ask whether you would work with this person. Next, assess the opportunity’s size and think ambitiously about the market. Always use the product yourself—a frequently skipped step. Talk to users about how they discovered it, what they used before, and what would make them leave. Analyze growth and drop-off rates against competitors. Ask why now: most ideas have been tried before, so understand why earlier attempts failed. Examine competition, moats, and whether the market is winner-take-all. Finally, trust your sixth sense: decisions sometimes need to happen faster, and intuition should not be underestimated.

Reading guide

Geoffrey Moore’s The Gorilla Game was published in March 1998, before the internet bubble burst, and revised in March 1999 at the bubble’s peak. Its central idea is to invest in the few high-tech companies with outstanding competitive advantages—the ‘gorillas’—to improve the chance of profit. Moore’s Crossing the Chasm and Inside the Tornado were already bestsellers in high-tech venture capital. Their technology adoption life cycle framework describes how high-tech markets nurture companies with enduring competitive advantages and provides a basis for an investment strategy model. The post describes both books as required graduate reading at Harvard, MIT, and Stanford business and engineering schools, and as desk references for Cisco, HP, Microsoft, and SAP executives.

Reading guide

Robin expresses admiration for AI company Kneron. MTS AI, a subsidiary of Russia’s largest telecom operator MTS, signed an agreement to invest around US$10 million in the Taiwanese edge AI chip developer. MTS AI would receive exclusive Russian distribution rights for Kneron chips and use its technology to develop an AI product line of its own. Robin notes that Taiwanese AI software had just delivered good news in Japan and hopes Taiwan’s hardware, an even greater source of pride, would bring good news from the U.S. market within a year or two. The investment and market developments refer to April 2021.

Reading guide

VC is intensely results-oriented, and backing a good company offers the greatest sense of achievement. Yet young investors often lack even the opportunity to invest. Of 100–200 projects reviewed in a year, roughly a tenth reach the boss for further evaluation; after full due diligence, perhaps only 3–5 remain worth championing all the way. An investor may finally persuade the partners, bring a term sheet to the founder, and return with it untouched. Championing a deal can end in self-doubt. After investing comes another kind of powerlessness: no amount of preparation removes exposure to macro conditions, changing technology, competitors, or a giant’s sudden entry. Investors must monitor developments and may worry that cash will run out in a month or two.

Reading guide

Continuing the earlier discussion, the post considers VC’s time horizon: more than seven years may pass between a first investment and a full exit. Leaving too early because of anxiety, confusion, or powerlessness can mean never experiencing enough complete cycles to advance. Outcomes range from an almost vanishing chance of unicorn fame to a successful exit, a small loss, or a write-off; more often, companies linger without an exit. Growth comes from reassessing evaluated and completed investments, building a personal investment logic, and learning repeatedly from supervisors, colleagues, and entrepreneurs. Robin adds that he is not good at socializing and has almost none outside work, but still needs to find a niche in which to survive.

Reading guide

Robin urges patience in choosing investors. Investment is a two-way choice, and rushing to choose an investor or portfolio company can create lasting problems for both parties. Entrepreneurship should create and deliver value and earn reasonable, sustainable profits. The quoted article warns that investor money is not free: taking certain investors’ funding can change a company’s goals and displace its original purpose with a drive to satisfy investors. When faced with a lengthy three-to-six-month process versus immediately available money, founders may make impulsive mistakes. Robin adds the reverse warning: investors should not be taken in by polished pitches from ‘2VC’ teams that cater to investors rather than customers.

Reading guide

Robin also received the fundraising email behind a controversy in e-commerce, with details omitted to protect those involved. It was sent in September 2019, before the pandemic, when liquidity was relatively ample and some money was moving from technology stocks to ‘new consumption.’ Nobody foresaw a three-year pandemic and the subsequent funding winter. Robin rejected the approach for two reasons. First, the asking price was so unrealistic that it removed any incentive to continue the discussion: test the market before naming a price. Second, intellectual-property-based products and toys lay outside his interests and knowledge. It is hard to earn beyond one’s understanding, and without convincing himself he could hardly convince his boss.

Reading guide

Venture capital returns follow a power law. In an early internal analysis, when Y Combinator had backed around 200 teams, its top investment returned more than numbers 2–200 combined; the second returned more than numbers 3–200 combined. The fear is therefore not losing money on a bad company but missing a good one. FOMO—fear of missing out—means preferring a hundred mistaken investments over missing the one that determines success. This helps explain backing seemingly eccentric founders: you might have passed on Jobs in 1978, an undergraduate Zuckerberg in 2004, or the Mars-obsessed Musk in 2003, yet each could change an entire generation through individual effort.

Reading guide

When someone promises extraordinary returns, one of three things is usually true: the investment is extremely risky; the person has genuinely found an overlooked opportunity and kindly wants to share it; or the person is lying. Often it is the third. Economists argue that most people earn only average market returns, making long-term holdings in broad-market index funds a rational approach. Charles Wheelan says he cannot know tomorrow’s or next year’s Dow close but is almost certain it will be substantially higher in 25 years. Robin’s reminders: distrust stock tips, develop independent judgment, and take the long view. If you can identify the richest deposits of investment gold, invest patiently; otherwise, stick to indexing rather than expecting a windfall.

Reading guide

Joe Tsai may well have been the greatest gift Jack Ma ever received. Tsai describes three levels of CFO contribution: avoiding financial detours; helping the CEO commit to moving forward at critical moments, beyond risk control; and allocating resources. Robin proposes three corresponding levels for venture capital and private equity. First, invest in promising companies, help them grow quickly, and exit. Second, raise funds by earning shareholders’ trust, creating wealth for them, and helping them transform. Third, use investing and fundraising to change industry structures and support industrial upgrading. These levels reinforce one another in a flywheel. Robin asks what the three levels are in your own field, observing that helping others succeed can bring success to yourself.

Reading guide

After discussing share-price volatility with a portfolio company’s chairman and general manager, Robin recommends first sending employees an internal letter. Prices reflect excessive optimism and pessimism; what goes up can come down. The company cannot control capital markets, but it can do its work well. Its real purpose is creating and delivering value to consumers, who should determine the company’s and employees’ value. Even employee shareholders should not let daily price moves dictate their mood or distract them from long-term value creation. Robin’s real concern is an unsettled management team losing focus, rather than the price itself. He closes by joking that he hopes his child’s writing will surpass Dad’s.

Reading guide

A global flood of capital is bringing a new VC wave. Where is Taiwan’s opportunity? Early-stage and growth-stage VC may represent only 1–2% relative to real estate, fixed income, and secondary equity markets, yet that small share helped create Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Tesla. Taiwan’s long-term planning should direct a small amount of capital toward the future. Defending Taiwanese VC, Robin argues that the industry is deeply local: the best deal flow requires lasting roots, trust, and reputation. China Development’s early U.S. and China offices did not ensure first access to the best deals. The priority should be helping Taiwanese teams internationalize effectively, rather than appearing international through overseas offices.

Reading guide

Robin’s fundraising advice to portfolio companies: the paradox is that you need money to raise money. Start another round before spending half your cash, and coordinate fundraising with burn rate so you are not constantly raising. If investors expect the next round to struggle or become a down round, they may refuse this round or demand a discount, setting off a vicious cycle of lost confidence. Ample cash gives you room to negotiate patiently. Seek existing investors’ continuing support, ideally with shareholders able to provide sustained support of at least 30%. Deliver results that make investors approach you, and tailor each pitch to the target investor’s concerns rather than giving everyone the same presentation.

Reading guide

Entrepreneurship often runs against human instinct, and chasing a high valuation is a major trap. When capital is plentiful, a barely started company can be valued above many listed businesses. Founders may develop an inflated sense of importance and think they run a large company when little exists yet. Rising valuations also impose competing demands: justify the last round to existing shareholders, make the current round attractive to new investors, and prepare a bigger story for the next. Attention shifts from products and customers to financing and valuation. Trying to serve three rounds’ valuations leads to poor decisions and misallocated resources. Written in late 2022 as the capital environment changed.

Reading guide

Robin recounts a hiring interview. A strong candidate—second-round VC interviewees generally have good backgrounds—was asked to recommend an AI investment. The candidate named Knxxxx, which Robin’s firm had also backed that year. The problem was not the company; it was recommending it simply after reading favorable coverage, without a distinctive view that could withstand deeper questions. Journalists and taxi drivers have abundant information too. Due diligence means using the product, assessing strengths and weaknesses, comparing the segment and competitors, and explaining a view of your own. Investing requires independent judgment. The company name remains masked as in the source.

Reading guide

Klook raised US$200 million, bringing cumulative funding to US$720 million, with each round a multiple of KKday’s; KKday had completed a US$75 million round the previous year. Robin compares this with Lion Travel, Taiwan’s largest travel agency, whose market capitalization was under NT$5 billion: a single Klook round exceeded the market value built over Lion Travel’s decades in business. Three lessons follow: traditional giants must transform digitally; startup business-model innovation can always challenge incumbents; and capital remains a powerful way to accelerate change. The figures refer to January 2021.

Reading guide

Why do seemingly similar startup ideas with strong teams diverge, with some quickly attracting investment and others eliminated? A company’s speed and ceiling depend heavily on the future its founder can see. That understanding shapes market positioning, strategic choices, business models, product development, and competitive barriers. Teams that look similar initially can be far apart within a year or two. An investor said Didi founder Cheng Wei thought most deeply and saw furthest into ride-hailing and mobility among more than twenty companies reviewed, which explained the investment. Wang Xing leading Meituan out of China’s group-buying wars illustrates the same idea. Robin asks what future you see, whether investors will join you, and whether you have Jobs’s reality distortion field.

Reading guide

While taking a train with his child, Robin shares four observations on venture capital and recommends Da Ying’s Taiwan VC guide. First, high returns come not from bearing high risk but from enabling change: new technologies and models replace old ones. Second, VC is a special, disproportionately small form of private fund because genuinely transformative innovation is scarce and needs relatively little capital; excess inflows can create bubbles. Third, the limited number of practitioners and amount of capital contribute to the industry’s mystique. Fourth, the ideal investor applauds from the audience after investing. Deals requiring aggressive intervention or even a coup to remove the founder mostly end in failure.

Reading guide

In episode 77 of M觀點’s (M Viewpoint) Investing Is Hard, Miula compares NVIDIA and Tesla using three considerations: industry prospects and trends, the company’s moat, and management capability. Founders seeking VC should explain four things: industry structure and future trends; why the team deserves investment, including its accumulated advantages and responses to difficulty; why it can succeed rather than giant competitors; and completed validation and feedback. The reprinted passage argues for investing in ‘the day after tomorrow’: yesterday is past, today is crowded, and tomorrow is already expensive. The day after tomorrow is taking shape but remains uncertain, with early-round pricing and ample room to develop—the stage that most excites venture investors.

Reading guide

Robin argues that internationalization is Taiwanese finance’s biggest challenge. Banks, insurers, and securities firms still primarily take money from Taiwanese customers. How much revenue comes from overseas even at financial groups as large as Cathay and Fubon? How many foreigners know Taiwanese financial companies? Even Mega, with 37 overseas branches, subbranches, and representative offices, raises the question of how much business extends beyond Taiwanese people and businesses. A news link about consolidation among government-controlled financial holding companies provides context. The office count refers to 2022.

Reading guide

In this installment on thinking about capital, Robin argues for a reasonable rather than high valuation. A high valuation can corner a company when capital markets, its industry, or the business turns down. Raise somewhat more than current needs, rather than assuming more is always better; steady, small steps are another option, depending on circumstances and careful planning. Entrepreneurship is lonely, and angels back founders with real money on trust alone; that trust should not be betrayed. The reprinted passage says founders must remain the protagonists, with investors serving behind them. Founders need clarity about needs, goals, and methods, and the ability to decide what to accept, reject, and say no to at the right time.

Reading guide

Robin says good stories are influential, memorable, easy to spread, and emotionally effective; founders should develop a complete story for their startup and fundraising. The quoted text argues that brains naturally prefer stories to abstract lectures. The quoted text says a cigarette warning that ‘smoking harms your health’ had little effect, whereas adding the vivid detail that smoking causes impotence reduced purchases and prompted reconsideration. In a Jewish tale, naked Truth enters a village and frightens everyone. A wise elder gives Truth clothes, and under the new name Parable, Truth returns to a warm welcome. Stories can give ideas greater influence.

Reading guide

Secondary markets react quickly to company value. Netflix, a global streaming giant spending US$18 billion a year on production, was built by visionary founder Reed Hastings, who defeated Blockbuster, created a streaming industry, disrupted cable television, and influenced Silicon Valley through a distinctive culture. Even such a legendary company could lose 70% of its market value in six months. Why should private-market startups insist on last year’s peak valuation—or more? Robin adds that global inflation, monetary tightening, and rising interest rates would make fundraising harder in the near term than in the second half of 2021. To keep moving, founders need tangible results and compelling reasons for investors to support them. These observations date to April 2022.

Reading guide

A reprint of Vista magazine’s account of the documentary Monopoly: Who Owns the World? The article argues that the apparent competition between Pepsi and Coca-Cola, or Apple and Android, is an illusion: Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street, dubbed the “Big Three” in University of Cambridge research, are the largest shareholders of industry leaders across almost every sector and collectively manage more than $15 trillion. It goes on to describe how passive index funds separate ownership from control, BlackRock’s close relationships with the Federal Reserve and the White House, and concerns that concentrated share ownership could weaken competition. (A reprinted article; its figures refer to around 2021.)