Learning to relax and rest does not reduce efficiency; it can support creativity. Brain research finds the resting brain as active as the working brain, with stronger connections between some regions. Active approaches include walking to relax your thinking, perhaps as a walking meeting; exercising to improve circulation—Haruki Murakami compares finishing a book to physical labor and trains for marathons; developing a napping habit, even for half an hour, as a learnable skill; getting enough sleep while the brain integrates memories and repairs damage; and learning “detachment,” focusing entirely on something other than work, especially after high-pressure tasks.
Key points
The resting brain remains active, with stronger connections.
Five forms of rest: walking, exercise, naps, sleep, and detachment.
Murakami: writing is physical labor, hence marathon training.
A half-hour nap can recharge you; napping is a skill that can be practiced.
Professor Christensen’s fundamental point: even excellently managed companies can fail. A success formula hardens, trapping a business in a value network governed by customer orientation, profit assessment, and resource allocation. That network cannot accommodate a new-business team, so an independent small organization outside the established system should confront disruption. One company can rarely sustain two cost structures and operating models. Three tests: can the innovation disrupt the original market—did people previously need an inconvenient centralized location, or lack the money, equipment, or technology to use it? Does it work at the low end—will customers pay less for imperfect performance, and can a low-priced model remain profitable while “overserving” them? Finally, can the strategy disrupt all major incumbents?
Key points
Excellent management can cause failure when the success formula hardens.
Build an independent small organization outside the established system to confront disruption.
Three tests: disruptive potential, the low-end market, and challenging incumbents.
After Bezos announced that he would step down as Amazon CEO in Q3 2021 and hand over to cloud-business leader Andy Jassy, Robin revisits his decision-making through Keji Daodu’s introduction. Bezos distinguishes irreversible, consequential one-way doors, which require careful, methodical, slow deliberation, from reversible two-way doors that teams can handle quickly. Ideally, the first type takes 10% of working time; avoid it when angry, hungry, lonely, or exhausted. A suboptimal reversible choice can be undone, but reversibility is no excuse for recklessness. Bezos even saw founding Amazon as reversible: if it failed, he could return to work, having learned much and without regretting the attempt. “If I make three good decisions a day, that is enough.”
Key points
One-way-door decisions: deliberate carefully and slowly, ideally using about 10% of working time.
Two-way-door decisions: reversible, delegable, and fast.
Avoid Type 1 decisions when angry, hungry, lonely, or exhausted.
The founders of 37signals discuss opportunities. Faced with many possibilities, people often choose what looks easiest: low-hanging fruit. But fruit may look low only because it is far away; approach it and it becomes unreachable. When something seems easy, often the reason is not simplicity but your lack of understanding. 37signals was once overly optimistic about unfamiliar, fashionable areas, only to find everything harder in practice. It then adopted a rule: never enter a completely unfamiliar business, however easy it looks. The psychological explanation is the Dunning–Kruger effect: the less people know, the more confident they are—the half-full bottle makes the most noise.
Key points
Something often looks easy because you do not understand it.
37signals: never enter a completely unfamiliar business.
The Dunning–Kruger effect: less knowledge, greater confidence.
Robin began introducing Zoom and Eric Yuan around 2016; Taiwanese entrepreneurs were also its most important angel investors. Born in Shandong, without an elite-university background, with limited English and eight visa rejections, Yuan eventually became a CEO loved by employees. His startup began with unhappiness: at Cisco, he wanted to rebuild WebEx as a mobile-first, video-centered solution, tried for a year, and left when it did not happen. He concluded that life is about happiness, and lasting happiness comes from making others happy. A CEO’s first job is therefore not customers or products, but employees’ happiness: happy engineers write better code. Zoom’s value is one word, “care.” His father’s advice: do your best and stay humble every day. Robin also urges seeing the world with as few personal filters as possible.
Key points
Eric Yuan: from eight visa rejections to a CEO loved by employees.
The startup began with frustration at Cisco over work he could not get done.
Published in 1966, The Effective Executive remains fresh and thought-provoking. Drucker on time management: executives spend enormous amounts of time on work that contributes nothing, yet few recognize it. If you cannot know yourself, at least know your time. Record and review its allocation; ruthlessly eliminate waste, cancel what should be canceled, and delegate what should be delegated. Stop keeping the organization in firefighting mode, make exceptional situations routine, and consolidate fragmented time into blocks for deep thought. Two priority rules: do not stay busy with yesterday’s tasks—abandon sunk costs and path dependence decisively—and do not let pressure set priorities. “Later” really means “never.” Finally, do one thing at a time.
Key points
Start by recording and reviewing how you use time.
Eliminate waste: cancel and delegate where appropriate.
Do not set priorities by pressure: later means never.
A technology giant’s rebirth. Nokia once dominated smartphones, but lost over 90% of its value in four years after the iPhone and Android arrived. Experts thought bankruptcy was only a matter of time. Yet under chairman Risto Siilasmaa, its enterprise value grew more than twentyfold from 2012 to 2016, and it became the world’s second-largest 5G communications-equipment giant. The book offers a firsthand account of the crisis, courageous changes of course, and the details of rebuilding, reading like an adventure novel. At its core are “paranoid optimism” and entrepreneurial-leadership principles for both prosperity and crisis. Robin’s recommendation is simple: browse it when you have time.
Key points
From losing 90% of value in four years to a twentyfold enterprise-value increase.
A complete transformation account from the chairman’s firsthand perspective.
Google is often seen as abandoning products such as Google+ before seeing them through. But Robin also admires its product management: when something is not working, it closes it without worrying about saving face. This reflects bottom-up innovation and high tolerance for failure. Success produces a killer product like Gmail; failures like Buzz, Wave, and Glass are decisively stopped, backed by financial strength and the willingness to cut losses. After acquiring YouTube, Google even abandoned its own heavily funded video service. Apple works differently: top-down, with a small product line and usually one major product in development at a time. Neither philosophy is inherently superior. What matters is finding product-market fit sooner than rivals. Google was fortunate to achieve it before burning through its funds.
Key points
Google: bottom-up innovation, tolerance of failure, and decisive loss-cutting.
Apple: top-down innovation and heavier investment in fewer projects.
Neither philosophy is superior; finding product-market fit faster is what matters.
Years ago, Henry Mintzberg flew Eastern Airlines, then the world’s largest airline, and ate terrible scrambled eggs. A flight attendant said frontline staff had repeatedly told management, which never listened. Mintzberg wondered whether management was running a business or merely reading financial statements. Analysts might explain problems through load factors, but he says Eastern closed because of those eggs. Years later, someone from IBM added a story: Eastern’s CEO boarded at the last minute; a paying first-class passenger was moved to economy. The CEO later apologized and introduced himself. The passenger replied, “I’m the CEO of IBM.” The issue was status, not a seat. Management has nothing to do with your customary seat, and everything to do with the eggs.
Key points
Frontline voices not reaching management are a fatal organizational problem.
Reading financial statements is not the same as running a business.
Robin: “Do not start a business assuming you can depend on others. Face real-world problems and build a sustainable business from the outset to improve your chances. Fundraising can temporarily conceal problems, but if you have not reached orbit before the rocket’s thrust ends, gravity will bring you crashing down.” Rework challenges the startup myth of a magical place where spending is someone else’s problem and revenue need not spoil the fun. Market forces and economic rules still apply: solve real problems, deliver value, generate revenue, and either make a profit or close. A business built on “we’ll figure out how to make money later” becomes a joke. Without a path to profit, it is a hobby, not a business.
Key points
Robin: fail to reach orbit before the rocket’s thrust ends, and you crash.
“Make money later” describes a hobby, not a business.
Real problems and real revenue, starting on day one.
From UCLA professor Richard Rumelt’s work. Robin sums it up: “If you cannot make clear trade-offs, you can only produce bad strategy.” Much bad strategy comes from refusing to give things up. Abandoning goals hurts interests and meets resistance, so organizations choose a mishmash to please everyone, requiring neither serious analysis nor rigorous logic nor sacrifice. It covers everything and fails. Operation Desert Storm in 1991 provides a contrast: feint in front and outflank from the side. The difficulty was focus—keeping 8,000 elite Marines waiting aboard ships, using airborne troops to distract attention, rejecting a simultaneous air-force attack on Baghdad, and suppressing proposals inconsistent with the main strategy. Concentrating key resources on a few right targets often produces unexpected victories.
Key points
Bad strategy stems from refusing to give things up and trying to please everyone.
Desert Storm: the difficulty of a simple strategy lies in intense focus.
Most productivity methods draw on management theory. The founders of 37signals approach the issue through brain science: attention is among the brain’s scarcest resources and has high switching costs. Interrupt writing to make a slide deck, and you need time to shift gears. That transition is attention switching. Their culture therefore includes “protectionism”: preserve long, uninterrupted working blocks against meetings, approvals, reports, and other interruptions. They compare time to money: exchange it all for one-unit coins and you buy only scattered trinkets; spend it as one sum and you can buy lasting value. People busy across many projects may achieve less than someone focused on one. An hour and sixty separate minutes are entirely different.
Key points
Switching attention is particularly costly.
“Protectionism”: keep small interruptions out of working blocks.
Ben Horowitz’s book on business culture follows The Hard Thing About Hard Things. He does not offer a universal standard for the “best culture,” because none exists. His point is that culture manifests in concrete behavior, not slogans on a wall. Unlimited snacks and a gym are amenities; value statements help shape culture but are not culture itself. “What you do is who you are”: culture appears in everyone’s actions. The book argues that culture is the most powerful productive force, capable of overcoming seemingly insurmountable structural constraints and even changing behavior across an industry or society.
Robin recommends Liu Jianguo’s book to technical professionals: a former Baidu manager recognized for outstanding management examines management and entrepreneurship challenges. Robin adds that management principles apply broadly, but technical people have distinctive commitments: pursuing new technology and designing products from their own perspective. Working in isolation, they may build something they admire without considering each detail from users’ perspective, leaving abundant unused features and desired features hard to find. The book describes seven “demons” at the technical-versus-management crossroads: uncertainty about the road, confusion over whether to manage, not knowing how to enter management, wavering about returning to technical work, anxiety about technical competitiveness, doubts about personality fit, and insecurity about performance. Settle your inner direction before managing with full concentration.
Key points
Robin: technical professionals can build in isolation and overlook user details.
Seven inner demons at the management crossroads.
Settle your inner direction before discussing management.
Four concluding points from Rework. Culture: plans, meetings, workaholism, and rules may look useful yet kill productivity; judge them by whether they help the company make money. Scale: a company need not become large to matter. Smallness can itself be a great goal, and limited resources spur creativity. If the business performs and earns money, remaining small and efficient can be a manager’s ambition. People: control headcount, slow hiring, and add nobody unless absolutely necessary. Degrees and experience should not determine suitability; doing the work well makes someone a good employee. Finally, maintain your judgment. Do not copy competitors or let customer demands dictate your direction. Keep doing your own core work well.
Key points
Keep plans, meetings, and rules only if they help make money.
Small and excellent can be a great goal.
Do not add people unless absolutely necessary.
Do not copy competitors or revolve around customers.
More than a decade ago, Taiwan’s game companies commonly told VC evaluators that Chinese games were poor-quality and uncultured. In under ten years, most Taiwanese firms became operators of licensed Korean and Chinese games, despite earlier leaders such as Softstar and influential titles such as 軒轅劍 and 仙劍奇俠. Film, television, and music have also declined: the gap after Jay Chou, A-mei, and Mayday’s generation is substantial. Huawei offers a comparison. Taiwan’s networking firms dismissed it 20 years ago; now even the United States is wary. A huge market turns quantity into quality. Robin argues that resource-constrained Taiwan must understand global trends and its own cultural strengths, rather than follow whatever others do well. He sees growing opportunities amid US–China tensions and urges Taiwan to position itself for the next wave.
Key points
Gaming: from 仙劍奇俠 (Xian Jian Qi Xia) and 軒轅劍 (Xuan Yuan Jian) to licensed operations.
A gap in film, television, and music: who follows Jay Chou’s generation?
Huawei’s lesson: quantity can turn into quality.
Robin sees more opportunities for Taiwan amid US–China tensions.
A once-fashionable distinction says leaders do the right things while managers do things right. It sounds convincing—until you focus only on the right things and neglect how to do them. Separating the two and placing leadership above management harms both. Royal Bank of Canada CEO John Cleghorn called from his trip to the airport to report a broken ATM, one among thousands. This was leading by example, not merely attending to minutiae. The best leaders participate in management. Stanford’s James March put it well: leadership requires both plumbing and poetry. We do not lack lofty leadership; we lack engaged management. Even a grand vision must be drawn through grounded, practical details.
Key points
“Leaders do the right things; managers do things right” is a neat slogan.
A bank CEO reporting a broken ATM leads by example.
Leadership requires both plumbing and poetry.
What is missing is engaged management, not leadership.
After listening to a Tim Cook biography, Robin returns to a previous question: which matters more, zero to one or one to N? Jobs and Cook exemplify each. Jobs was a creative genius and business legend whose epoch-making products changed lives and left such a personal imprint that Apple still evokes him ten years after his death. Any successor faces intense scrutiny. Cook exemplifies one to N: a reserved, careful master of operations and supply chains. Under him, Apple’s market cap rose from over US$300 billion past US$1 trillion and US$2 trillion, the first company to do so. Robin believes business talents who scale one to N are relatively numerous; legends who create disruptive businesses from zero are rarer and more readily remembered.
Key points
Jobs exemplifies zero to one; Cook, one to N.
Under Cook, market cap passed US$1 trillion and US$2 trillion.
One-to-N talents are more common; zero-to-one legends are rare.
Good leaders have views but stay open, adjust when appropriate, acknowledge weaknesses, ask questions, keep improving, and stay connected to team members. Technical leaders often mentor colleagues and have more experience in some areas, but cannot know everything. When facing the unknown, they should still support people and guide them toward solutions. It is normal for team members to be stronger in some areas: their combined knowledge exceeds any leader’s. Good technical leaders admit ignorance and ask apparently stupid questions. Better to look foolish and learn now than remain ignorant throughout your career. “Ask a stupid question and you may feel stupid; do not ask, and you stay stupid.”
Key points
The team’s combined knowledge exceeds the leader’s.
Dare to ask: learning now beats remaining ignorant.
Leaders provide direction, not necessarily every answer.
Many founders distrust everything teammates do, repeating instructions to prevent surprises. But employees may simply think differently. Working on the front line, they may have better ideas than senior leaders. Growth requires trial, error, and improvement; without mistakes, people cannot see shortcomings or know what to improve. Trust each employee as a capable person responsible for their work. Merely allowing mistakes is not enough: share the consequences when they happen. Robin adds: “The founder’s progress alone is insufficient; the team must move forward together. Allowing mistakes is part of learning. Demanding perfection may stifle employees’ room to grow. Give them enough trust.”
Key points
Frontline employees may have better ideas than senior leaders.
Without mistakes, people do not know what to improve.
Beyond allowing mistakes, share their consequences.
Observe not only how a company performs in good times, but whether senior management can lead it out of trouble. Robin’s long-term assessment of Netflix’s team is positive: DVD-by-mail disrupted Blockbuster; streaming disrupted its own DVD business; then it invested heavily in original content. It transformed substantially at least twice. During the first-quarter share-price plunge, he retained confidence in a battle-tested team that had challenged giants and reinvented itself. The shares later rebounded 50% from the bottom. Beyond price increases and account-sharing enforcement, Netflix was entering advertising, linking viewing time to performance. Past growth came from subscriber numbers; future growth would come from keeping subscribers with video and games, turning longer attention into greater returns. Written in 2022.
Key points
Assess management by how it handles adversity.
Netflix’s three stages: mail → streaming → original content.
A 50% rebound from the bottom: advertising and the attention economy.
Robin jokes that he may soon be removed from FITI’s mentor database after telling a team to revisit why they started: not every venture must keep growing, raising capital, and listing. A grand dream helps in a FITI competition, but is it the life you want? Another option is a lean software company with annual revenue of 50–60 million, twenty-some employees, annual profit of 15–20 million, good benefits, modest growth alongside customers, and several million in annual shareholder dividends. No endless pursuit of acquisitions, overseas expansion, and listings, nor investors interfering after financing or small shareholders watching after listing. Life involves choices: more people can build practical businesses, solve problems, create value, and serve stakeholders without immersing themselves in grand dreams.
Key points
Not every startup must keep growing, fundraising, and listing.
A small, excellent company: tens of millions in revenue, twenty-some staff, and several million in annual dividends.
Robin: “Find a business model that works in the real world over the long term, rather than scale built solely by burning VC money. When spending stops, you may fall from heaven back to earth because you have not created real value or solved real customer problems.” The reprinted observation is equally sharp: new consumer brands can reach 100 million more easily than ever, but annual sales of 1 billion are harder and 5 billion less likely than ever. VC-backed projects may race to 100–200 million, stall at 300–500 million, then shrink. Burning VC cash, promotion on Xiaohongshu, and loss-making livestream sales create no defensible niche or position in consumers’ minds. Stop the stimulant and sales contract, morale falls, talent leaves, and a vicious cycle begins.
Key points
Robin: cash-fueled scale does not equal real value.
Reaching 100 million is easiest; stalling at 300–500 million is the likely fate.
Without a niche, there is no position in consumers’ minds.
As physical retailers pursue online-merge-offline (OMO) commerce, they must grow store sales as well as capture online demand. 91APP product chief Li Kunmou describes three engines—a data-driven cycle, traffic-growth cycle, and OMO momentum loop—to connect websites, apps, and stores in an omnichannel member experience. Responsive-site advertising and app operations acquire new customers and increase repeat purchases. Online/offline coupons and points create seamless shopping. A distinctive “referrer engine” awards points, bonuses, and revenue sharing for store service, helping online and store sales grow together. OMO is more than integrating channels: it is digital, and even organizational, transformation.
Key points
Three engines: a data-driven cycle, a traffic-growth cycle, and an OMO momentum loop.
The referrer engine credits store service with points, enabling bonuses and revenue sharing.
OMO is fundamentally digital and organizational transformation.
Many factors cause startups to fail; running out of funding is probably the main one. Watch cash flow constantly and prepare more than one script in which fundraising succeeds and problems disappear. Smooth operations plus smooth fundraising are rare; setbacks, harder fundraising, core-team departures, and giant competitors are more common. Prepare for varied and worst-case scenarios. Stable cash flow keeps you from losing in the short term; the right talent is what lets you win. Find a way to attract exceptional people, as Liu Bei’s three visits illustrate. Different talent models have trade-offs: Netflix’s high pay, top performers, strict removal of low performers, and “not a family” approach is harsh but effective; others favor a family atmosphere. Make your culture clear and find people who fit.
Key points
Running out of funding is a major cause of failure; prepare several scenarios.
Two Western oil giants faced decarbonization blows on the same day. A historic Hague District Court ruling ordered Shell to cut total group carbon emissions by 45% by 2030. Meanwhile, a decarbonization-focused investment fund won two seats in Exxon Mobil’s board election. Traditional oil-industry power structures on both sides of the Atlantic faced a major challenge, potentially marking the beginning of the oil giants’ twilight after a century of dominance. A record of governance and ESG forces reshaping an industry, as of May 2021.
Key points
Shell loses: a 45% carbon-emissions cut by 2030.
A decarbonization-focused fund wins two Exxon Mobil board seats.
ESG begins reshaping power in the century-old oil industry.
Why did PayPal become so influential in Silicon Valley, even exceeding the Google of its era? Robin identifies four factors: an ambitious goal; exceptional people drawn together by it; a difficult founding journey, unlike Google’s relatively smooth one, dominated by survival battles that forged deep mutual trust; and, after acquisition, battle-tested people spreading through Silicon Valley with experience, skills, and unfinished ambitions to build new companies. A business like PayPal—successful through countless battles but without a perfect ending, ultimately sold to eBay—may be best placed to keep creating remarkable achievements.
Key points
An ambitious goal brings exceptional people together.
Survival pressure forges mutual trust.
Unfinished ambitions carry people into new ventures.
Battle-tested companies with imperfect endings may create further greatness.
When Robin worked in underwriting, a supervisor remarked that women generally outperformed men of the same age in expertise, depth of thought, and expression. Yet securities work sometimes meant accompanying clients into uncomfortable or risky settings, so the firm lowered its hiring bar for some men to spare female colleagues those situations. Similar differences appeared at school: girls often had stronger grades and greater maturity. But broader conditions meant that 30 years later, most senior executives were again men. Board gender ratios became so unequal that reserving seats for women was actively encouraged and rewarded in governance evaluations and ESG. A candid observation on workplace gender disparities.
Key points
Interviews: women of the same age generally performed better.
Thirty years later, senior executives were nevertheless mostly men.
Women’s board representation became a positive factor in governance and ESG.
Taiwan’s workplace culture has long emphasized managing up. Robin argues that, in a new era, broad peer recognition matters even more for leading a team forward. Google offers an interesting example: before promoting someone, obtain approval from at least five colleagues who may work with them. Bosses cannot observe every office behavior; coworkers can notice details such as rudeness or frequent lateness and offer relatively objective judgments. Securing their recognition before promotion makes future collaboration smoother. From Dedao’s audio summary of 矽谷模式 (The Silicon Valley Model, descriptive translation).
Key points
In a new era, peer recognition matters more than managing up.
Google: get recognition from five colleagues before promotion.
The best way to get to the market is not to rush there, but to live there. When everyone else arrives, you discover that you have long been part of it—and have inadvertently become one of the earliest arrivals. The same goes for catching a trend: rather than chase it deliberately, be firmly in position when the wind picks up. Robin uses Kuaishou as an example. The arrival of the 4G era suddenly propelled its existing short-video business, helping it grow rapidly among users in third- and fourth-tier cities and small towns. An entire era helped create Kuaishou. He suggests studying its development and following how a small company manages the strategic transitions involved in becoming a large one; there should be much to learn.
Key points
Live in the marketplace rather than rushing to reach it.
Rather than chase the wind, be in position before it starts blowing.
Kuaishou: a winner in lower-tier markets shaped by its era.
Robin’s four-part formula: “Restraint, focus, simplicity, greater efficiency.” He follows it with a blunt jab: “Yes, you MBAs who like turning simple things into complicated ones—writing endless plans, designing endless processes, holding endless meetings, setting endless goals, and creating endless rules just to demonstrate your own value. In reality, you are the ones dragging down the company’s efficiency. To save Taiwan, start by drastically shrinking university business schools.” Rework identifies planning, meetings, workaholism, and rules as productivity killers. Robin notes that this may fit small startups particularly well, but these efficiency killers spread even more alarmingly in large companies—which makes the book especially relevant to their managers.
Key points
Restraint, focus, simplicity, greater efficiency.
A jab at MBAs: turning simple things into complicated ones.
Large companies need to be especially alert to the spread of productivity killers.
Jeff Bezos handing over the reins was the biggest technology news at the time. But he said he was not retiring; he wanted to devote energy, time, and resources to other projects, including climate change and space exploration. Robin’s view: at a certain stage, founders can try handing over operational responsibilities, stepping away from daily operations to think about longer-term positioning and other important issues. Google founder Larry Page and Microsoft’s Bill Gates offer good examples. (Written in February 2021.)
Key points
Bezos hands over the reins without retiring, turning toward climate and space.
A task for founders at a certain stage: step back from daily operations.
Wu Bofan’s 每週商業評論 (Weekly Business Review, descriptive title) on Dedao, with Robin’s commentary
Reading guide
Wu Bofan analyzes Amazon’s long-term strategy: strategy focuses on new opportunities, while tactics optimize what already exists. Bezos is quoted as saying that a one-year horizon reveals many competitors, but a five- to ten-year horizon makes them hard to name. AWS launched in 2006 and, in the account, faced no real competitor for almost a decade. Amazon escapes imitators by moving forward rather than staying to fight: fear standing still, not moving slowly, and make the road your Great Wall. The lesson also considers the opposing view. Jobs objected to listening to customers, illustrated by Ford’s potential customers asking for better horses; Christensen argued that core customers dragged Kodak down. Robin identifies the key distinction: uncover customers’ real needs by starting with their ultimate purpose. They may want to reach a destination quickly and comfortably, rather than own a car or a better horse; or communicate more effectively, rather than own a phone with better features. Before deciding whether a project is a must-have or nice-to-have, define the customer and genuinely solve that customer’s problem. The lesson adds that customer centricity is a capability, not merely an intention. It requires a prism that reveals the spectrum of needs. Amazon leaves an empty chair for the customer at meetings, and customer obsession lies at its cultural core.
Key points
Strategy focuses on new opportunities; tactics on what already exists. Over five to ten years, competitors become hard to name.
The account says AWS launched in 2006 and faced no real competitor for almost a decade.
Escape imitation by moving forward: fear standing still, and make the road your Great Wall.
The Jobs and Kodak examples suggest customers can sometimes drag a company down.
Robin: identify real needs from customers’ ultimate purposes, first defining who the customer is.
Customer centricity is a capability, not just an intention: the prism of needs and the empty chair.
Reprint of Ma Huateng’s 2012 open letter for Tencent’s partner conference, with an introductory guide
Reading guide
In a July 2012 open letter to partners, Ma Huateng drew inspiration from Ren Zhengfei’s 管理的灰度 (Gray Areas in Management, descriptive title) and distilled Tencent’s fourteen years of experience into seven principles for creating a living organization. Demand alignment: user needs are the product’s core. Tencent product managers follow a 10/100/1000 rule—ten user surveys, following one hundred user blogs, and collecting one thousand user-experience reports each month. QQ Mail turned around after being rebuilt. Speed: take small, rapid steps and iterate quickly, accepting imperfection while moving rapidly toward perfection; nobody stays five seconds behind someone else in understanding. Flexibility: proactive change matters more than reacting to change. Redundancy: tolerate failure and some waste. WeChat emerged from competition among several internal teams. Openness and collaboration: lessons from the 3Q conflict mean a platform must choose what to do and what not to do. Capacity to evolve: Kodak invented the digital camera but organizational rigidity left it on the shelf; mechanistic organizations can become green deserts. Innovation: innovation is an outcome, not a cause, emerging naturally from the gray areas of a living organization.
Key points
Seven dimensions: demand alignment, speed, flexibility, redundancy, openness and collaboration, capacity to evolve, and innovation.
The 10/100/1000 rule: there is no shortcut to understanding user needs.
Take small, rapid steps and iterate quickly: good products start imperfectly.
Redundancy: WeChat won an internal race; success requires risking failure.
Kodak invented the digital camera but organizational rigidity buried it: the capacity to evolve determines innovation’s survival.
Innovation is an outcome, not a cause, emerging from a living organization’s gray areas.
Reprint of Lockheed Martin’s Kelly Johnson innovation principles, with Robin’s commentary
Reading guide
Legendary Lockheed Martin engineer Kelly Johnson established fourteen innovation principles for Skunk Works. Give the program manager nearly complete authority; maintain strong but small project offices on both the military and contractor sides; and restrict staffing to 10–25% of a normal organization, ruthlessly controlling bureaucracy and unnecessary work. Use a simple, flexible drawing-release system and require few reports while thoroughly recording important work. Review costs monthly, avoid books running ninety days late, and do not surprise customers with sudden overruns. Give contractors greater responsibility and authority to conduct flight tests. Push inspection responsibility back to subcontractors: quality comes from design and responsible operations, not inspection. Agree specifications before contracting, explicitly stating important requirements that will not be met and why. Provide timely funding, mutual trust, and close daily cooperation. Strictly control outsiders’ access, and reward performance rather than the number of people supervised. Robin’s view: innovative R&D is difficult, but simpler working methods and streamlined processes can free researchers from organizational constraints and help them concentrate. Make innovation simpler, freer, and bolder. He particularly highlights rule six on accurate cost estimation and control.
Key points
Give the program manager nearly complete authority, reporting to a division president or higher.
Restrict staffing to 10–25% of normal levels: control bureaucracy ruthlessly.
Minimize reporting and use a simple, flexible drawing system while recording important work thoroughly.
Review costs monthly: avoid books running ninety days late and surprise overruns.
Quality comes from design and responsible operations, not layers of inspection.
Robin: make innovation simpler, freer, and bolder.
Reprint of Zhang Yiming’s writing, with Robin’s introduction
Reading guide
Zhang Yiming wrote this guide to choosing an employer for technical talent when Toutiao was still a small company. He introduces the EC ratio—enterprise value divided by total funding. Google, Facebook, and Tencent had very high ratios. Maintaining a high EC ratio indicates organic growth capacity rather than dependence on outside funding; a low ratio combined with heavy fundraising can suggest a business fattened by capital. He recommends that first-rate technical talent choose leading technology companies, judging technical investment and technology’s contribution to business value rather than money spent on field promotion. Drawing on his rejection of an investment offer from a giant, he argues that bundled traffic and distribution can become stimulants, distort strategy, and force a company to take sides. Do not join a company marrying into a wealthy family; join an outstanding company and become a great one together. He also criticizes obsession with titles and management headcount: titles suffer more inflation than the ruble, while WhatsApp and Instagram had tiny teams. Companies made up of people concerned with how many they manage rather than what they do cannot have high talent density. Finally, early and late are relative; the scale of future potential is the absolute yardstick. Alibaba and Tencent still grew more than a hundredfold after their fifth year. Rather than speculate on a runner-up, choose the leader.
Key points
EC ratio = enterprise value divided by total funding, an indicator of organic growth capacity.
First-rate technical talent should choose leading technology companies with substantial technical investment.
A giant’s resources can act as stimulants, distorting strategy before internal strengths develop.
Challenging work with outstanding people matters more than titles and management headcount.
Early and late are relative; the scale of future potential is the absolute yardstick. The rational choice is to join the leader.
Book excerpts from 精益創業實戰 (Lean Startup Practice, descriptive title) and 高成長思維 (High-Growth Thinking, descriptive title), with Robin’s commentary
Reading guide
This post challenges the claim that customer interviews are unnecessary because customers do not know what they want. Ford’s “faster horse” actually contains a real customer problem: people want something faster than their existing solution, and a horse is simply the solution they know. Jobs said knowing what they want is not the customer’s job; Paul Graham regards understanding customers as a founding team’s first task. Robin identifies the key issue: asking questions does matter, but you may not be asking the right ones. Asking what customers want tends to produce improved versions of existing products. Instead, conduct outcome-based interviews: ask what results they want, not what solutions they want. When an answer describes a solution, keep asking why and what it would do for them. Ask the right people too: industry experts’ feedback often differs greatly from that of most users. The post also recounts a conversation between Graham and Airbnb founder Brian Chesky: if your users are in New York, what are you still doing in Mountain View? Early startups should do laborious things that do not scale, visiting users individually. This is also the sixth counterintuitive rule cited from Blitzscaling. Robin concludes: stop imagining and forecasting; get out of the room and have in-depth conversations with users now.
Key points
A “faster horse” contains a real problem: the customer wants something faster.
Robin: asking questions matters; the issue is whether you ask the right ones.
Outcome-based interviews ask about desired results, not desired solutions.
Experts’ feedback can differ greatly from most users’, so ask the right people.
Early startups should do laborious, unscalable work: visit users one by one, as Paul Graham advises.
Robin’s commentary and 聲動早咖啡 (Shengdong Morning Coffee, descriptive title), February 3, 2023
Reading guide
Robin opens with a view on entrepreneurship: quantify your products and services wherever possible rather than relying on empty narratives. Follow industry standards where they exist; where no quantitative standard exists, an even greater opportunity may emerge. Pantone’s dominance over color definition illustrates this. Shengdong Morning Coffee describes a seven-second rule in color marketing and a survey finding that 85% of consumers base purchase decisions on color. Starbucks green, McDonald’s yellow, and Tiffany Blue are classic brand colors. Pantone began as a printing business. In the 1950s, color mixer Lawrence Herbert noticed the high cost of communicating about color and created numbered swatches as a universal color language. The Pantone Matching System launched in 1963, transforming supposedly unquantifiable color into a standardized product. Its guides reportedly generate more than US$100 million annually. Pantone later established a color institute and announced annual colors, giving color an authoritative voice. Tiffany Blue carries the number 1837 and cannot be used without authorization; brand-color work contributes 15% of Pantone’s profit. More recently, Adobe users’ need for a paid subscription to use Pantone colors has raised concerns over color monopolization.
Key points
Robin: the absence of quantitative industry standards can create a greater opportunity.
The seven-second rule: 85% of consumers reportedly base decisions on color.
Numbered swatches turn subjective color descriptions into rational symbols and standardized products.
Annual colors and the color institute give color definitions authority and influence.
Liang Ning’s 增長思維30講 (30 Lectures on Growth Thinking, descriptive title) on Dedao, with Robin’s commentary
Reading guide
Robin begins with a qualification: normally, he still encourages the standard Lean Startup approach—understand needs and do something you care about. But if a one-in-ten-thousand chance puts you in the path of a boom, it may be time to blitzscale. Liang Ning’s reading of Reid Hoffman’s Blitzscaling emphasizes speed over efficiency in a huge, uncertain market. To move fast, accept chaos, tolerate poor management, overlook customer complaints, and raise more capital than needed: the “barbarian rules.” Yidao founder Zhou Hang responded rationally, like a civilized person, and ultimately lost to Didi’s aggressive tactics. The account describes four stages: pirates, marines, army, and police. Pirates use flexibility and risk-taking to establish their initial position. Xiaomi’s early three-layer structure and “demanagement” resemble marines taking a beachhead, when conserving ammunition cannot take priority over firing. During Chinese New Year 2019, Zhang Yiming spent US$500 million promoting Douyin in eight days, separating it from Kuaishou, which emphasized spending nothing on promotion. When market headroom runs out, blitzscaling should stop and management must change, as Xiaomi moved toward an army-like structure. Banks and foreign companies resemble police maintaining order. The book reassures entrepreneurs who survived that their fundamental choice at that stage was right.
Key points
When a boom arrives, prioritize speed over efficiency and accept chaos: the barbarian rules.
Zhou Hang’s civilized rationality at Yidao lost to Didi’s aggressive approach.
Four stages: pirates, marines, army, and police.
Do not conserve ammunition at the beachhead: Douyin’s US$500 million in eight days versus Kuaishou’s claim of no promotion spending.
When market headroom is exhausted, turn to management; the book relieves surviving founders of blame.
Robin: Lean Startup remains the normal recommendation; expansion depends on catching the boom.
Wan Weigang’s 精英日課5 (Daily Lessons for the Elite, Volume 5, descriptive title), with Robin’s parenthetical comments
Reading guide
This installment of Daily Lessons for the Elite introduces five tools that strategy scholar Richard Rumelt uses for strategic analysis. First, compare like with like: New York subway construction costs US$3.5 billion per mile—seven times the global average, four times London’s, and more than ten times Paris’s. The comparison reveals a problem; Paris has a design review committee that controls costs. Second, understand human behavior: a department manager’s attractive cash-flow forecast serves a competition for headquarters’ resources, highlighting good news and concealing bad. When knowledge, resources, and decision-making authority sit with different people, misleading claims arise. Most people avoid confronting their company’s real difficulties. Third, analyze data: detailed costing at a Brazilian window-blind company showed that large blinds were the real money-makers. A women’s clothing chain’s profitability depended on location and traffic rather than store size. Robin adds that breaking down startup pricing and subscription revenue often reveals losses. Fourth, use established frameworks: shipping’s overcapacity creates a prisoner’s dilemma; airline code-sharing and point-to-point services offer analogies. Fifth, seek insights from the front line: Kodak was defeated not by digital cameras but by a new ecosystem in which people stopped printing photographs.
Key points
Compare like with like: New York subway costs exceed Paris’s by more than tenfold, immediately revealing a problem.
Understand human behavior: selective reporting arises when knowledge, resources, and decision-making authority are separated.
Analyze data: large blinds make the money; location is the key to clothing-store profitability.
Apply frameworks: shipping can learn coordination mechanisms from airlines.
Front-line insight: a new ecosystem, rather than a particular competitor, defeated Kodak.
Robin’s parenthetical point: a detailed breakdown of startup pricing often reveals hard work at a loss.
