English articles

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Robin observes that highly resourced, privileged teams and grassroots teams have roughly equal chances of success, with strengths and weaknesses offsetting one another. The former have more opportunities but higher costs and more escape routes, and may retreat more readily or raise and spend too much. The latter use resources carefully and persist through problems. He urges founders to clarify what problem they solve and what value they create for whom. Vague positioning can leave a team confused about its own direction. The closing Quibi excerpt warns against becoming dependent on the path of past success.

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Robin uses the analogy of going blank halfway through speaking: without establishing a starting point and an endpoint for your thinking, you can lose the thread. Entrepreneurship works the same way. Like Bezos, work backward from the end state to plan each step. Keep checking your key waypoints to avoid being diverted by small short-term gains. Minimize improvisation rather than simply solving whatever problem appears. The greatest value of identifying the end state is training the awareness needed to stay on topic.

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Robin highlights two points. First, in the internet era, those with the most connections win. He cites Tencent’s shift after the 3Q conflict toward investing in JD.com, Pinduoduo, and others to build an ecosystem. Second is the power of capital and the connections it creates. The interview excerpt describes each fundraising round as a chance to explain the company’s plans to the market. It also reflects on subsidy battles and wars of attrition: the market will not give you money when you truly need it.

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Robin warns that products and business models can become increasingly complex. He recalls reading that most Evernote users use only approximately 5% of its features—an impression, not a statistical finding—and guesses Word and Excel are similar. He argues for simplicity and solving important problems, leaving many additional functions to compatible third-party software. He also makes two observations: Estonia produced Skype and Pipedrive, and Taiwanese startups should likewise face the world boldly; as giants become general-purpose platforms, startups should concentrate like a nail to achieve a breakthrough.

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Robin identifies two prerequisites for building a large platform: the core function must be exceptional and globally unmatched; and the platform must be sufficiently neutral, avoiding competition with customers and earning the trust of customers and competitors alike. He contrasts TSMC, which does not design ICs and puts customers at ease, with Samsung, whose design business leaves customers with doubts. He also warns that Amazon’s pursuit of continued growth may bring it into competition with customers. Once it loses neutrality and trust, customers will begin leaving.

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When discussing acquisitions and mergers, we usually consider synergies, but price is another critical factor. Robin argues that strategically minded entrepreneurs can look beyond the immediate price. Investors often deliberate over one or two units, or even half a unit, in the entry share price, but for a genuinely attractive investment this is insignificant beside the prospect of returns exceeding tenfold. Buying is an art; holding and exiting are harder. He says the holding period is what truly determines returns, and exiting too early or too late has the greatest impact.

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Using news of Intel’s foundry outsourcing plans, Robin observes that advanced manufacturing processes and packaging are capital-intensive markets in which catching up becomes extremely difficult once a company falls behind. Intel faces a choice between continuing to invest in manufacturing and focusing on chip design. He excerpts three considerations behind Intel’s historical exit from DRAM—its technological core, its full-product-line credo, and management’s pride—and the cost of laying off 7,200 employees. He then brings the question back to Intel’s new CEO in 2021, traditional travel agencies, and struggling founders: what would they decide?

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Robin contrasts Ballmer’s repeated emphasis on “we” with Nadella’s language of empathy and listening to customers. He argues that Microsoft’s old monopoly rested on Windows, while engineering pride made it difficult for the giant to change direction. The challenge involved products, management, and culture. Startups therefore have opportunities to challenge giants, whose baggage is even heavier. But startups must be more focused, faster, and more adaptable, targeting subtle shifts that the giants have not noticed.

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Robin introduces Thomas Friedman’s Golden Arches theory: two countries with McDonald’s restaurants will not go to war with each other, because societies with McDonald’s have stable economies and strong middle classes, and their interest in development and consumption outweighs ideology. At its core, this is an expectation of rational human behavior. Extended further, countries in the same global supply chain will not fight each other. Robin hopes economic development and democratization will advance peace, but ends with a qualification: human nature and the desire for power are harder to predict.

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Robin’s main point is that startups lack the resources to build broad platforms for everyone. They must pay close attention to their earliest users, just as MUJI focuses on customers who share its values. The post also quotes Paul Graham’s idea that one hundred passionate fans are better than ten thousand people who merely think a product is acceptable. It recounts Nike’s beginnings among track-and-field enthusiasts, and Frank Rudy’s pitch for air-cushioning technology, which Phil Knight agreed to test and license through per-pair royalties.

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The post recounts how Sears founder Richard Sears rose through successive opportunities: nationwide rail connections, standardized time zones, postal access and mail order, and urbanization. It then describes Sears’s failure to seize the next opportunities represented by Walmart and Amazon, leading to bankruptcy in 2018. Robin closes by arguing that retail has moved from consumers actively searching to merchants proactively recommending products. Increasing segmentation, differentiated audiences, and customization create new business opportunities.

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Robin explains why he encourages teams to spend more time abroad. Taiwan’s market is limited, and a team that feels impressive only at home can resemble the River God or the summer insect in Zhuangzi. The best way to broaden perspective is to enter a larger market and experience its impact firsthand. Drawing on the River God’s encounter with the North Sea in “Autumn Floods,” he argues that success often depends on breadth of understanding rather than effort alone. Perspective depends on one’s environment, so spend time with people who are better than you.

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Robin identifies three questions founders need to clarify: how strongly target users need the product; whether users could easily switch away without noticing its absence; and whether losing it would cause major inconvenience. The less replaceable a company is, the more valuable it becomes. He includes Wu Jun’s response to a reader asking why Evernote struggled. Wu argues that the product was not essential enough and its timing was squeezed by Google Docs and Office. Robin says their views are similar.

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The post first excerpts Lei Jun’s views: fundraising is a confidence game, easiest when you do not need money. Start raising when half the cash is spent; with no cash left, bargaining power is nearly gone. Robin then offers eight suggestions: the fundraising paradox is that money attracts money; begin the next round before half is spent; match burn rate to fundraising pace; investors who fear a difficult next round or a down round may discount or decline this one; cash gives negotiating confidence; win existing investors’ support, ideally with stable backers holding at least 30%; produce clear results that bring investors to you; and tailor the pitch to each investor.

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Robin begins with the idea that people remember only number one. In the internet era, being first means monopoly, with neither oligopoly nor perfect competition. If a giant already occupies a position, create a new market through a better category: Facebook dominates social networking, while Twitter and Instagram carved out text- and image-based markets. PayPal, Square, and Stripe provide similar examples. He adds that a niche monopoly is sensible, but becoming number one on a particular road or in a particular building is meaningless if the market is too small. VCs still assess market size and growth potential.

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Robin argues that addition is easy. Taiwanese consumers value getting more for the same price, so founders and product builders often keep adding features—a tendency he personally considers dangerous. He cites TA-Q-BIN, Tamagoya, and Yoshinoya as examples of doing one thing exceptionally well. Entrepreneurship requires subtraction: remove the unnecessary and focus attention on the most important problem. Startups’ advantages are flexibility, focus, and speed; giant platforms can be left to giant companies. Many startups stack AI, IoT, blockchain, cloud, big data, 5G, and NFTs until they can no longer explain their business in one sentence.

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Discussing the indicator of students studying abroad immediately after high school, Robin offers a different perspective. Earlier generations of talented Taiwanese graduates went abroad, saw the world, and brought back technology and new perspectives. Today, many remain at leading Taiwanese universities for master’s degrees and are recruited early by major companies. He worries about a gap in Taiwan’s ability to connect with the world, while Taiwanese students in the United States are increasingly outnumbered by Chinese and Indian students. He welcomes talented high school graduates attending leading foreign universities. The real question is whether Taiwan offers enough incentive for them to return.

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Robin ranks three resources in entrepreneurship: attention above time, and time above money. Buying other people’s time and services is usually worthwhile; use the time saved for more valuable work. He also repeats a point he often makes: a startup’s window of opportunity opens briefly and narrowly, and may close when giants and capital enter, so establish your position early. Finally, he reminds readers that they may have only three to five hours of genuinely focused, productive time each day; do not scatter that attention.

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The main text describes how Google challenges rigid thinking by asking people to make an idea ten times bigger. It tests an idea’s maturity through three questions: could it affect hundreds of millions or billions of people; does it contain a distinctive technical insight; and could it become feasible soon? Robin comments that employees should pursue tenfold breakthroughs rather than 10% or 20% improvements. But the approach does not fit every situation: a small startup may struggle to find a narrow entry point if its scope is too broad. Fundraising in Taiwan tends to require concrete results, whereas this approach can help when raising internationally.

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After completing his FITI reviews, Robin shares seven points: similar teams can join forces to compete internationally; use national resources such as Ministry of Science and Technology and Ministry of Economic Affairs programs and the National Development Fund’s angel investment program; decide whether the endgame is acquisition or an IPO; making a product or obtaining certification is not the ultimate test—selling it worldwide is. A customer saying “sounds good; we’ll evaluate it once it’s built” is usually negative; someone with real demand wants to pay before completion. Professor-led student startups should include someone who has run a business, and R&D startups should stay asset-light and outsource where possible.

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The opening account says TSMC’s business model is determined by who its customers are: other semiconductor companies. It emphasizes technical support rather than personal connections. Robin then asks: who is your real customer? An early-stage startup must focus and make trade-offs; it cannot build a platform for everyone. Before rushing to build, understand target customers through in-depth interviews, confirm demand, then create an MVP, validate it, and iterate quickly. There is little need to rush to investors beforehand: they will ask about interviews and data, and do not want a CEO operating on instinct alone.

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Watching Netflix and Disney compete in Taiwan, Robin argues that foreign giants already dominate its OTT market, much as Google and Facebook dominate online advertising. At that time, platforms with the largest user bases are difficult to dislodge; Taiwan is an incremental market for them. Using domestic cars as an example, he argues that once tariff protection is removed, tooling amortization and sales scale make it hard for local manufacturers to compete—the figures are hypothetical examples. His conclusion: Taiwan is small, so identify core and comparative advantages and concentrate scarce resources on strengths other countries cannot easily replicate.

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Robin finds an interesting definition: a startup is a temporary organization aiming for rapid growth in a short time. Even a newly established company is an ordinary new business if rapid near-term growth is not its objective. A restaurant or hair salon’s ceiling depends on its premises and spending per customer; a custom software outsourcer’s ceiling depends on customer spending. Neither type is better: they simply pursue different goals.

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Robin believes the most important discipline in a SaaS startup is making trade-offs. After wrestling with the decision, firmly walk away from large customers demanding customization; otherwise, they can drain your capacity to innovate and turn you into a labor-intensive software contractor. He points to Basecamp and Taiwan’s iCHEF CEO as examples of knowing what the company needs at its current stage and who its customers are. If a VC asks why you do not serve certain customers or build certain features, his preferred answer is: we make clear trade-offs; those are not right for this stage, and we have clear target customers and a product-development sequence.

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Robin looks back at Jobs recruiting Sculley, being forced out, and returning to Apple after the 1996 NeXT acquisition. He notes that in 2011 Jobs chose Tim Cook, whose personality was the opposite of his and whose operational abilities were exceptional, rather than widely favored design leader Jony Ive. Robin personally admires Jobs’s late-life judgment of people and ability to put them in the right roles: seeing future trends and finding the most suitable successor.

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Robin draws five lessons from the story of conquering the South Pole: a major opportunity is rarely visible to you alone—many people race to be first; history remembers first place; thorough preparation, spare capacity, and flexibility help you stay calm when making critical decisions; cohesion matters more than team size; and disciplined daily progress, in good conditions or bad, determines the outcome. In extreme environments, doing your best is not enough: do your sustainable best. Small daily steps become a large advance when you look back.

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Robin writes to young venture capital professionals: VCs often tell founders to focus, cut back on nonessential activities, and stop chasing trends, yet frequently chase trends themselves. In his ten years in the industry, the hot sector has changed almost every one or two years—from games, software, the internet, and the sharing economy to AI, blockchain, electric vehicles, and the metaverse. He argues that VCs should calmly identify their core strengths and what makes them irreplaceable, then build those strengths deliberately. With enough accumulated resources, they may even create a trend themselves. The advice VCs give founders applies equally to their own careers.

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Someone asks how angel investing differs from an angel fund. In Robin’s basic understanding, angel groups—of which Taiwan has several—discuss incoming opportunities, then each angel decides individually whether to invest, using their own money and taking responsibility for their own decisions. An angel fund pools money under unified management and makes a collective invest-or-pass decision; in that sense, it can be viewed as institutional investing. Angel groups charge membership fees, whereas funds charge management fees, such as 2%, and share investment profits, such as 20%; these are examples. He welcomes corrections and additions from practitioners.

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Robin offers five points on fundraising prices: research the market first, with an asking price supported by evidence, comparisons, and calculations. Seeking investors means seeking partners—not demanding they pay your price because you think the company is wonderful. Investing is a confidence game; starting high and cutting repeatedly, for example from 150 million to 50 million, erodes confidence. Competitive investor demand may allow a modest increase, but otherwise investors tend to wait. Do not negotiate an investment when you have no bargaining chips left.

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Robin compares US March CPI inflation of 8.5% year on year with Taiwan’s 2.47%. He argues that Taiwan’s low inflation reflects deliberate government price controls, with the Fair Trade Commission and Ministry of Economic Affairs intervening when companies announce increases. He cites CPC: frozen natural gas prices meant it absorbed 104.8 billion in costs in 2021 and another 51.7 billion in the first quarter of 2022, losing roughly half its capital. He speculates that with free-market pricing, imported energy and food, and wage increases amid labor shortages, Taiwan’s year-on-year CPI inflation might exceed 10%—Robin’s hypothetical scenario.

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Robin argues that industries and economies cycle through bubbles, slumps, and recovery. Uncompetitive companies are eliminated, while survivors reach new highs; he cites Google and Amazon after the 2000 dot-com bubble. Crises also incubate larger opportunities: Bitcoin and blockchain, the sharing economy, cloud services, and SaaS emerged after 2008. As another storm gathers in 2022, he argues that early-stage investors should think harder about the next big thing and position themselves a year or two ahead—waiting where the wind will blow rather than chasing it.

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Robin looks back at years of abundant global capital, when FOMO and the belief that another buyer would always come along encouraged fast decisions even on marginal deals. Since the second half of the previous year, tighter capital has made investors more rational and slowed peers’ decisions: deals they might once have taken or passed on are now declined. Startups must reconsider their venture and explain why it is necessary; simplification becomes the central concern. Investors should return to fundamentals, verify more, and judge independently. Do not convince yourself too easily: the person most likely to deceive you may be yourself.

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Following the previous point about talking less and listening more, this post warns against hypotheticals: asking “If we built this feature, would you use it or pay for it?” is the wrong approach. Ask about specific events that have already happened in users’ lives instead. Robin gives an example: asking whether someone would be interested in cutting costs by 20% and improving efficiency by 15% is hypothetical and leads them toward the answer you want. Such interviews are meaningless. Understand the path and motivations that brought users to the problem.

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Robin argues that world-changing inventions are often extremely simple: easy to understand and explain, flexible, and open to layers of applications. Business models should likewise be simple and focused, doing one thing well at a time. If you cannot explain your product, service, and model quickly, they are too complicated; start over if necessary and narrow the battlefield rather than launching on four fronts with eight products. His three tests: can you explain it on one A4 page, in six minutes, and to the grandmother selling vegetables on the corner?

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Robin argues that startups can attract excellent engineers away from big companies by presenting their ideas, dreams, and goals. They need employees willing and able to take risks; those seeking comfort choose major technology companies. Explain that the journey and growth can matter more than the outcome. A new hire at a startup can receive major responsibilities and challenges sooner, quickly becoming a key person for a product or market. Even if the company fails, they gain experience unavailable to junior employees at large firms, where reaching a key product role may take more than ten years.

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Robin notes that after a full day of pitches, investors may not remember every company’s details, but parts of a story can leave a strong impression. Learning to tell a memorable short story within limited time is a trainable skill. He cautions against overused stories even when true: like an entrance-exam essay grader reading one grandmother story after another, investors can become weary. Many PhD founders of biotech drug companies begin with a family member’s cancer inspiring them to develop treatments; repeated often enough, the story loses some emotional impact.

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Robin cites reported figures: Taiwan would have just over 130,000 births in 2022, compared with nearly 270,000 university entrants in 2015 and roughly 240,000 in 2017. By 2040, the incoming cohort would fall to about 130,000; he argues that university numbers would have to fall by at least half relative to 2015. Universities should move beyond enrollment numbers toward developing each student’s global competitiveness and mobility. Just as investment should be assessed not only for profitability but for impact, greater impact can create greater future value.

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Robin argues that success in the future depends on a grounding in the humanities: understanding human nature, exploring motivations, and prompting behavioral change, alongside art and design that enrich the world beyond efficiency and functionality. He then shares a book introduction about STEAM—science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics—explaining how adding the arts emphasizes humanity, innovative thinking, and work across disciplines.

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The post first summarizes Bao Fan’s three priorities: understand your target customers and market; recognize that the hardest part of entrepreneurship is doing less; and keep gathering resources—money carries resources behind it, which founders must actively uncover. Robin then adds seven points: know what you want and will sacrifice, understand customers, develop a feel for the market, simplify and focus, identify the core rather than aim for everything, invest time in depth, and gather resources including talent. His “guns in hand, follow me” metaphor describes a leader who can rally followers.

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Robin opens by saying founding teams can take many forms, but mutual respect is essential. Partners must agree on the rules beforehand and follow them. Bao Fan’s talk then explains that spouses, classmates, and equal partners can all succeed, provided responsibilities and decision-making are agreed in advance. The greatest risk is partners rejecting the original rules later. Core arrangements for sharing rewards and making decisions should not change lightly; procedures and regulations can evolve with company scale.